I noted on the 31st that the best deals for the week include:
- The S&P 500 long index displays that each day in New York exceeds 6,515, which was unexpected.
- For cautious traders, it’s over $3,500 for a long or daily in New York. Gold increased by 4.10% for the week.
- Similarly, for careful traders, it’s $40 more than the long or daily silver in New York. Silver also rose by 3.19% in a week.
These activities resulted in an overall profit of 7.29%, averaging out to 2.43% per asset.
Last week showed that market volatility in forex was notably low.
A recap of last week’s key data includes:
- US average monthly earnings—an increase of 0.3% as anticipated.
- Changes in US non-farm employment—early Jolts data revealed only 22K new net jobs, which fell short of the expected 75K.
- US Jolts jobs—7.18 million, below the predicted 7.32 million.
- US ISM Service PMI—slightly better than expected.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI—almost in line with projections.
- Australia’s GDP—a 0.6% increase, just above the anticipated 0.5%.
- Swiss CPI (Inflation)—expected stability, but the index slipped by 0.1%, indicating deflation.
- US unemployment rate—rose to 4.3%, as forecasted.
- Canada’s unemployment rate—surpassed expectations by increasing from 6.9% to 7.1%.
- US unemployment claims—slightly above expectations.
Recently, there’s been more tranquility in the market than usual, with noticeable low volatility.
Gold and the S&P 500 reached record highs, while silver hit levels reminiscent of 2014. The US economy appears to be weakening, primarily due to lackluster employment data, which has fueled speculation for Fed rate cuts in the next meeting. Currently, there’s a 100% chance of a cut in September, an 80% chance in October, and a 73% chance in December. Some expect a 0.50% reduction at the upcoming meeting. These prospects could lead to a weaker US dollar, following a long-term downward trend, while boosting the stock market.
This could be an opportune moment for trading and investing.
Next week will be busy—not so much in terms of data volume, but because certain points are likely to move the market.
Key upcoming data points include:
- US CPI
- US PPI
- Preliminary UOM inflation expectations in the US
- Preliminary UOM Consumer Sentiment in the US
- European Central Bank’s major refinance rates and monetary policy statement
- UK GDP
- US unemployment claims
In September 2025, we project the EUR/USD pair may rise if a single day closes above $1.1806.
That’s not decided yet.
Last week, we didn’t make weekly forecasts.
There weren’t any noticeable price shifts in the currency sector, so this week lacks regular forecasts.
The Canadian dollar was the strongest major currency last week, while the Australian dollar was the weakest, although overall changes were minimal. Volatility stayed low, with major currency pairs and intersections not shifting by more than 1%. Next week could see an increase in volatility as we move into September.
You can trade these projections in your Forex brokerage account or demo.
Last week, the US Dollar Index showed bearish signs again, indicating a long-term negative trend. Despite a likely high technical drop in the US dollar price, there may be limited downward movements ahead, as it remains within the current area. However, recent poor employment data has influenced a more bearish market sentiment.
The market is now eyeing potential rate cuts in upcoming Fed meetings. Some foresee a possible 0.50% cut this month, and there’s a growing sentiment that the Fed may begin adjusting their approach. Emotional market reactions might lead to declines reaching the next support level around 94.61.
It’s not all long-term with the US dollar, as I think it’s prudent to trade according to long-term trends and short-term price actions.
The S&P 500 edged up to a new record high last week, exceeding 6,500.
The weekly candlestick illustrated an upward-moving pinbar, usually signaling bullish trends.
The index reached peaks after disappointing US employment data was released on Friday but lost some gains toward the day’s end. The weak employment figures have increased market hopes for Fed interest rate cuts at the next meeting.
Overall, things appear bullish but remain hesitant above 6,500, so I’m hoping for a daily closure beyond 6,515 before committing to new long trades.
Gold made significant gains last week, climbing more than 4% and closing near its new record price of $3,600.
The weekly charts indicate a strong bullish breakout, underscored by a sustained long-term bullish trend and solid integrated patterns from the preceding weeks.
We could see some pullbacks, but the combination of rising stock markets and a more aggressive Fed approach to rate cuts might maintain bullish sentiment to push prices even higher.
Gold led the precious metals last week, while silver followed closely, bolstered by surpassing $41 per ounce for the first time in 14 years.
Prices were not far from their peak at the week’s end, and the weekly candlesticks are breaking bullish channels. Still, it’s notable the channels aren’t symmetrical.
Although silver seems to exhibit less buying pressure than gold, it still presents a buying opportunity. As a precious metal, it aligns with the underlying factors noted in earlier gold analyses.
More careful traders might consider waiting for a daily close above last week’s levels or starting smaller than usual in positioning.
Here are the best deals for this week:
- The S&P 500 long index shows daily closures exceeding 6,515.
- Silver remains a good long position.
- Gold is also a favorable long option.
Ready to trade Forex weekly forecasts? Check out our list of the top 10 Forex brokers worldwide.
