On the 24th, I noted some of the top deals for the week:
- The S&P 500 index has consistently shown daily levels exceeding 6,471 in New York, with a slight 0.16% drop this past week.
- For those being more cautious, gold is a long position if it exceeds daily marks of $3,433 or $3,500 in New York; this wasn’t determined until the weekend.
- Silver is also looking like a long position, but only if it stays above $39.29 or $40 daily in New York, again only until the weekend.
Last week observed lower market volatility, typical for August, as many participants were on vacation, contributing to decreased liquidity.
Here’s a summary of important data from last week:
- The US GDP showed an annual rate of 3.3%, surpassing expectations of 3.1%, which positively impacted the stock market.
- The US Core PCE Price Index remained stable, rising by 0.3% monthly, shifting inflation expectations slightly.
- In Canada, GDP figures came in lower than anticipated. A monthly decline projected at 0.1% fell short of expectations, despite a predicted increase.
- Australia’s CPI surged from 1.9% to 2.8% annually. Although an increase was expected, it was lower than the anticipated 2.3%, creating some upward pressure on the market and easing fears of cuts.
Recently, the market has been less volatile than usual, becoming notably quieter.
Both silver and the S&P 500 have recorded new highs, reflecting a slightly stronger US economy bolstered by the recent GDP data. Some believe this uptick could partly stem from Trump’s tariffs. There’s potential for further gains in US equity indices, but if the Fed delays interest rate cuts, it could trigger a significant revision.
Next week might be busy, especially from a data perspective, which could bring notable shifts and the potential start of new trends. Key data points to watch include:
- US average hourly earnings
- Changes to US non-farm employment
- US ISM Services PMI
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Canada’s GDP
- US unemployment rate
In August 2025, forecasts suggested the EUR/USD currency pair would gain value, and I exited the position with profits at the start of the month.
Looking to September 2025, if the EUR/USD closes above $1.1806 for the day, it’s expected to rise. Last week, we didn’t have any major price movements at the currency intersection, making forecasts this week uncertain.
Last week, the Australian dollar was the strongest, while the euro lagged, though overall directional movement was minimal, with low volatility continuing across the forex market. With the new month approaching and many global markets returning to regular volumes after August’s lull, we may see increased volatility ahead. Note that Monday is a public holiday in the US and Canada.
Expectations from the Fed are causing a bit of tension in the market. The sentiment is leaning towards wanting rate cuts, but the chances for a reduction in September stand at only 48%, which complicates the outlook.
Still, I think it’s sensible to follow long-term trends combined with short-term price actions, suggesting that short necessary trades with the US dollar might be beneficial for next week.
The S&P 500 index remained stable, showing little week-to-week change, indicating a sense of uncertainty within traders. The summer’s uptick in the stock market could face some resistance as we step into fall and see the return of many traders post-holidays.
For future trades, I’d like to see daily closes exceed 6,515 convincingly before considering long positions, especially after last week’s movements seemed promising.
As for precious metals, both silver and gold have recently broken through medium-term resistance levels, with silver leading the way in making new highs. It’s pivotal to note that recent price action in silver looks quite bullish, even if it hasn’t fully tested new peaks just yet.
For silver, entering a long trade appears favorable, while cautious traders might want to wait for it to stay above $40 consistently each day. Similarly, gold holds potential, with some preferring to wait for daily prices above $3,500 before committing.
To recap, here are the best opportunities currently:
- S&P 500 index is showing daily levels above 6,515.
- Silver is a long position if it holds above $40 daily.
- Gold should be considered for those cautious traders following daily prices exceeding $3,500.
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