WENDELL COX: Gavin Newsom Denies People Are Fleeing His State. The Data Paints A Very Different Picture

I was recently interviewed by Sean Hannity of FOX. California Governor Gavin Newsom has dismissed the idea that there is an outflow of population from California to other states.

According to Newsom, California’s performance Mississippi, West Virginia, LouisianaFor a long time, it had slow growth and high population exodus.

Despite the unparalleled benefits of weather, scenic beauty, and Silicon Valley innovation, Californians are moving out more than they are moving in. Latest quote In 2022, the state has lost 343,000 net immigrants. That’s an improvement of nearly 250,000 over the previous year, but it’s still a significant improvement. In 2021 and 2022, nearly as many people will die in California as in San Francisco.

Since 2010, California has lost 1.9 million net immigrants. This number should be alarming.

  • The Los Angeles metropolitan area (Los Angeles and Orange counties) has lost 1.25 million net internal immigrants since 2010.
  • The San Francisco metropolitan area has lost 300,000 net immigrants since 2010, more than 70% of the past two years.
  • The San Diego metropolitan area has lost 133,000 people since 2010. That’s half the combined loss in the Rust Belt metropolitan areas of Pittsburgh and Buffalo (79,000), which have about the same population as San Diego. The San Jose metropolitan area, the heart of Silicon Valley, lost 249,000 net domestic immigrants between 2010 and 2022.

The big exception is the inland Riverside-San Bernardino metropolitan area, which has a population of 149,000.

California’s population is declining, 1.3% below its 2020 peak. Proportionately, the biggest losses come from the larger core cities (municipalities rather than metropolitan areas). Los Angeles suffered a three-fold loss from the state’s (4.0%) peak. San Jose has lost nearly five times the state (6.4%) since its peak, and San Francisco has lost about 5.5 times the state (7.1%).

What’s behind these losses? The simple answer seems to be the high cost of living. According to, the cost of living in California is about 50% higher than the national average, and as much as 130% higher in the most expensive areas. San Jose metropolitan area

Directed by Paul Ong Center for Neighborhood Knowledge, Ruskin School of Political Affairs, University of California, Los Angelessaid “housing affordability” tops the list. In fact, about 50 years ago, there was a time in California when a middle-income family could afford a middle-priced home.

Since then, measures adopted by state and local governments have strictly allocated land for housing, using environmental regulations and urban growth boundaries (or their equivalents).

This has squeezed the supply of land while demand continues to grow. Land prices soared. Housing economists Edward Glaser (Harvard University) and Joseph Gyorko (Wharton University) They showed that by 2013, land prices in five counties in the San Francisco metropolitan area were ten times the industry rule of thumb. We also find that land price premiums generally dwarf housing construction inequalities.

An overzealous effort to curb ‘urban sprawl’ has made California successful practically impossible Building a home that the middle class wants at a price they can afford. But California isn’t the most sprawling state, highest urban density, according to 2020 Census data. Only 5% of the land is under urban development.

Taxes also contribute to the rising cost of living in California.of tax foundation ranked it as the fifth highest state and local tax burden in 2022. Gasoline prices are more than a third higher than the national average, putting a strain on the lowest-income workers. 75% of them use their car to access work, 15 times more than his 5% of workers. Transportation is serious, according to the 2021 American Community Survey.

The outflow is likely to continue.Found by the Los Angeles Times 40% of Californians are seriously considering moving out of state. The high cost of living in California was the main reason for his 61%. A further 27% said they would rather live in a place where their political beliefs are better expressed.

People generally move in search of a better life. Perhaps nothing tests a nation’s market more than net internal immigration. California should benchmark real competitors like Florida and Texas, not historically slow-growing states.

Since 2010, California has lost 1.9 million net immigrants, while Florida has seen an increase of 2 million. Texas got 1.7 million. In both cases, the difference between California and Florida (3.9 million) and Texas (3.7 million) was greater than the populations of 22 individual states.

There is some quibble about whether it’s an “escape”, but it certainly matters.

Wendell Cox is a public policy consultant and president of Demographia.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

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