of detroit lions With 7 minutes and 32 seconds left in the NFC Championship Game, an impossible decision was faced. A combination of skill and luck pried open the door to San Francisco, and the early excitement and promise gave way to nightmarish fever dreams. 49ers. They came back in the third quarter and jumped into the lead after trailing by 17 points at halftime.
When Dan Campbell had the ball on fourth down at the San Francisco 30-yard line, he made the biggest decision of his coaching career. There were two wrong decisions in front of him. Campbell can hope that his offense, which underperformed for much of the fourth quarter, somehow pulls it together on the game’s most important downs, and that kicker Michael Badgley (whom he did) It would also be possible to send out players who were not available. There was no particular confidence and he had only been on the active roster for a little over a month.
Campbell decided to dance to the date that brought him, believing his best players would carry the Lions through, but it was a failure. Jared Goff was pressured and was forced to attempt a deep pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown, but it fell short and the ball was given back to San Francisco. The 49ers scored on a solid drive and decided the game.
Usually in situations like this, there is a clear right and wrong path, and the clearly right decision is either executed or ignored, but the Lions’ fourth-down decision was the biggest one. It was one of those rare cases where it was a true coin toss in meaning. Of the word.
The fourth down decision calculator shows a very close win with less than 1% difference in deciding whether to kick a field goal or not. A 40% success rate isn’t a huge deal, but it’s a pretty solid probability.
Now, what’s interesting about this model is that the Lions had a better chance of winning the game by missing field goals than by making them. The presumption here is that the mistake would have changed the way the 49ers attacked after the kick. The premise is that they will play conservative football. That could have led to either a punt or a field goal, giving the Lions a chance. Drive for the victory with a touchdown.
Another model showed that on the fourth down attempt, the decision to go for it or not was very close, with a decision difference of only 0.3%.
Therefore, when there is essentially a tie in the analysis, we need to move on to the subjective, and we can now argue for the decision to adopt Campbell’s fourth result.
discussion in addressing it
The scoreboard is bad, but there are only two plays with points at this point. Really The game turned around when Brandon Aiyuk gained 51 yards on a pass that should have been intercepted and Jamil Gibbs fumbled the football.
This was a five-play, 45-yard drive. Jameson Williams had a catch for 22 yards, David Montgomery rushed for 16 yards and St. Brown caught a pass for 7 yards. It seems possible that only 3 yards are needed.
Calling in a field goal team when players need to have faith can be extremely damaging to morale. You’ve been an aggressive fourth-down team all season, so being the kicker now would be an indictment of your faith in the players that got you to this moment.
Kicker Michael Badgley’s background with the Lions also needs to be taken into account. He has been on the practice squad all year, only being added to the main roster in mid-December, and has only completed 77 percent of his career 40-49 yard attempts as a kicker. do not have. It’s not like there’s someone to send out automatically.
If you convert, you could potentially eat the clock and score a touchdown. In that case, you can call the kicker later and win the game.
field goal debate
As a coach, you have to stop the bleeding. This confident offense is clearly shaky and making some uncharacteristic mistakes. Already in the half, you saw Josh Reynolds make two critical drops, Sam LaPorta make a rare drop on the turf, and Jahmil Gibbs fumble.
something That needs to be the case in order to alleviate the pressure, and the best way to achieve that is to tie the score, treat this like a new ballgame, and rally the team in the moment to focus their attention. It is to let.
When you score a field goal, your momentum stops. At the very least, it puts pressure on the 49ers to think about an all-even drive. Mistakes aren’t great, but turning those attempts into positives can ignite your defense by asserting that you believe your opponent can get a key stop. And he’s only three points behind.
On the road, with all this pressure, you get what the game gives you. In this case, the game will be 3 points and a draw. From there anything is possible.
So what was the right decision for Dan Campbell?
There is no definitive answer. From a coaching standpoint, the whole situation was terrible. The arguments about whether you should aim for it or score points are equally compelling, and there are analyzes and anecdotes to support both.
All we know for sure is that if the field goal had been successful and everything had played out that way, it would have been an anything-goes overtime game. Instead, the 49ers will be left celebrating their Super Bowl appearance and the Lions will ponder what they did wrong.
Soccer is such a fickle thing.
