Trump’s Dismissal of BLS Commissioner Raises Questions

In a recent discussion on a segment of Varney & Co., Alicia Finley from the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board talked about President Donald Trump’s claims regarding the employment report. Trump alleges that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) manipulated data to favor Joe Biden before the election.

Following a disappointing employment report for July, which showed a significant downward revision, Trump terminated BLS Commissioner Erica Mantelfer. He asserted that she “falsified the number of jobs before the election.”

The BLS indicated that the U.S. economy gained only 73,000 jobs last month, falling short of expectations which estimated around 110,000 jobs. Moreover, revisions for May and June were adjusted downward, with a total reduction of 258,000 jobs.

Contrary to Trump’s accusations, the adjustments in the Monthly Job Report are part of a standard statistical method that aims to enhance data accuracy as more information becomes available. The BLS routinely revises its figures to reflect more reliable data over time.

Employment Growth Slows Amid Economic Uncertainty

In a video from earlier this year, the BLS highlighted that, as of June 2024, there were over 122.2 million job positions filled by more than 155.7 million employees. The current Employment Statistics Survey reaches out to about 121,000 businesses and government entities each month, covering around 631,000 individual workplaces.

Here are a few reasons why the Labor Bureau’s employment figures need corrections:

Quick Turnaround

Data is typically collected over a period of 10 to 16 days, averaging 12 to 13 days. Some businesses may not be able to report their data within this timeframe. Those that pay their employees monthly, for instance, might struggle to meet the reporting deadline.

Response Rate

As data is gathered, the methodology relies on two subsequent revisions in the following months, meaning the initial employment figure is a preliminary estimate. Response rates generally improve for the first and second revisions as more businesses provide information.

Historically, from 2020 to 2023, the first publication’s average response rate was approximately 68.3%, climbing to 89% for the first revision and 92.8% for the second revision.

Non-response and Sampling Errors

The necessity for two monthly revisions arises partly because it allows businesses and entities that missed the initial submission deadline to respond later. Incorrect information can also come in, but these errors can be rectified in subsequent revisions. As more samples are collected, the quality of the data tends to improve.

The BLS employs seasonal adjustments based on the most recent month, requiring corrections to past data. This process, combined with new sample data over time, helps to lessen errors in annual revisions.

Errors from non-responses and incorrect reporting, along with fluctuations in corporate operations, accumulate monthly. To mitigate this, the BLS undertakes an annual benchmarking process that aligns sample data with broader population counts, ensuring greater accuracy over time.

The latest employment report indicated that the reserve benchmark would be issued early September, while confirmation will come in February 2026.