Up to 450 million citizens from 27 EU countries will go to the polls from June 6 to 9 to elect the more than 700 members of the European Parliament, the world’s only directly elected multinational parliament. .
European Parliament elections (commonly referred to as European elections) are held every five years and help shape the political direction of the EU, as Parliament plays a key role in making EU law.
This year’s vote, the first since leaving the EU, has been closely watched as opinion polls predict significant support for far-right and anti-establishment parties and is expected to have far-reaching implications for the EU’s policy agenda. ing.
Some observers believe that despite the predicted proliferation of far-right “anti-European” parties, little may actually change. Some say these elections could ultimately be a defining moment for the bloc.
What does Congress do?
The Parliament is one of the EU’s three core institutions, along with the Council, which represents the governments of the member states, and the Commission, the executive branch that proposes and implements EU law and runs the bloc on a day-to-day basis.
Through the ‘co-determination process’, Parliament shares legislative power with the Council, shaping new regulations and directives proposed by the Commission and ultimately approving them if the Council agrees.
Parliament represents the interests of EU citizens at the European level and issues laws affecting countries, businesses and individuals in areas as diverse as immigration, rule of law, social policy, environment, security, consumer rights and the economy. will be adopted.
It also defines the EU’s financial priorities, approves the EU’s multi-year budget, scrutinizes how the funds are spent, and forms the EU’s executive body, elects the Commission President, and It also helps approve meetings.
How does it work?
MEPs are elected members of national political parties, but once they become members of parliament, they usually join like-minded transnational political groups. There are currently seven such groups, and most national political parties belong to one of them.
The group must have at least 23 members, including members representing at least a quarter of the EU member states. The two largest groups are the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-left Social Democratic Party (S&D).
Parliament operates in 20 specialized committees of between 25 and more than 80 members, working on areas such as transport and defence. Their respective memberships and presidencies should reflect the political composition of the entire parliament.
How are elections held?
Member states are free to hold elections as long as they are held within the same four-day period and the number of MPs elected from each party is proportional to the number of votes received.
EU nationals residing in other member states can vote and stand for election there, as long as they are registered.
The next parliament will have 720 members, 15 more than in 2019. The number of members of each member state is agreed upon in advance, and is based on the principle that members of larger countries represent more people than members of smaller countries.
The minimum number of members of any country is 6 and the maximum is 96. In the next parliament, the three largest groups will be Germany with 96 members, France (81) and Italy (76). Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta have the lowest numbers, with six each.
When will I know the results?
Results will not be announced until the evening of June 9th, so countries that vote earlier will not influence results elsewhere. Partial estimates will be published around 6:15pm CET, and more or less reliable images should be available by 11pm.
What do the polls predict?
Most polls predict that the far-right group Identity and Democracy (ID), which includes Germany’s AfD, France’s National Rally (RN), Austria’s FPÖ, and Italy’s Lega, will gain the most. . It could probably jump from 59 to 85 seats and finish in third place.
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The nation-first European Conservative and Reform Party (ECR), which includes Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS), Giorgia Meloni’s Italian Brothers, Finland’s Party, Spain’s Vox and the Sweden Democrats, is likely on track to win 75 seats. It is.
According to some estimates, the radical right party is expected to be first in nine countries, including Austria, France, the Netherlands and Belgium, and second or third in nine countries, including Spain, Portugal, Sweden and possibly Germany. .
However, the centre-right EPP is expected to remain the largest group, winning roughly unchanged with around 175 seats, while the centre-left S&D will once again finish in second place, possibly losing a few MPs, with a total of around 145 seats. It is expected that he will take the seat.
The centrist Renew group, which includes Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance, is expected to suffer the biggest losses, falling from 102 seats to around 80 (possibly fewer than ID), with the Greens losing seats. It is expected that up to a third of the population will be lost.
What do the results actually mean?
It is very difficult to say, but a lot depends on the attitude of the legislators who are currently “.”Non-engravedThis means they are not members of any multinational group, especially Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party, and also mentioned the expected changes in the group after the election.
In theory, the EPP, S&D and Renew groups should maintain a parliamentary majority, but the right-wing coalition of the EPP, ID and ECR, or the “Euro-critical” group consisting of ID, ECR, left-wing and independent members The Union cannot do that. Gather enough votes to pass a bill.
Many observers believe that two national conservative, far-right groups, the ECR and ID, could join forces to delay or block the commission’s proposals, jeopardizing key projects such as the green transition and aid to Ukraine. I am concerned that there is.
However, the ECR and ID have not been able to work together so far, and while they agree on some issues, such as immigration and rolling back environmental laws, their opinions are sharply divided on other issues, such as their stance on Russia and support for Kiev. .
While ID members such as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally are generally seen as pro-Kremlin, the prevailing view in the ECR is that they are aligned with Poland’s PiS, which sees a Ukrainian victory as essential to future European security. Represented.
French far-right party “Rassembly Nationale” (Rassembrement Nationale – RN) during a political rally as part of the party’s campaign for the European elections in Perpignan, France, on May 1, 2024. Marine Le Pen, leader of the party, responded. Photo: Manon Cruz/Reuters
Differences of opinion within the party may also be a factor. Le Pen, who has led a determined effort to cleanse the party, publicly questioned earlier this year whether the AfD’s more radical elements made the German party unsuitable as a partner.
And if, as expected, Prime Minister Orbán, who left the EPP in 2021 and is now non-aligned, decides that the expected 14 MPs should join the ECR, a large A realignment could occur, and perhaps an entirely new group could emerge.
Sowing further uncertainty, outgoing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that “depending on the composition of Parliament” the EPP could enter into some form of agreement with the ECR (though not the ID). He said there was a possibility of a tie.
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