What happens if Trump trial ends in hung jury?

Jurors in former President Trump’s New York trial concluded their first day of deliberations Wednesday without reaching a verdict.

A few days of uncertainty over this decision could create one of the more interesting political scenarios: a disagreement on the verdict and a nullity ruling would be a real possibility.

The political implications of whether Trump is convicted or acquitted are pretty clear: the former would give President Biden a powerful weapon in this year’s election, while the latter would be a breath of fresh air for Trump.

The impact of the disagreement on the election is difficult to predict.

Republican and Democratic observers agree that Trump will likely claim victory if the jury cannot reach a verdict.

Republican strategist Alex Conant argued that a disagreement in jury decisions would have roughly the same impact, politically speaking, as an acquittal.

Either scenario would allow Trump to “avoid conviction” and “energize” the former president’s base of support, Conant said.

“From the Republican perspective, liberals did everything they could to put Trump in prison, and he beat them.”

There is widespread skepticism among Democrats that a disagreement over whether the jury will have any significant political impact.

They are keenly aware that election-related polls have barely shifted during the trial, and that even the more sensational allegations involving Trump and adult film actor Stormy Daniels are likely to have little new impact on voters.

“Views of the former president are pretty well established,” said Democratic strategist Julie Lozinski. “If you think he was a thug who broke the law, there are plenty of other court cases that prove that point. If you think he was wrongfully prosecuted or ‘persecuted,’ [Trump’s] Advocates will understand that. There are plenty of examples there that we can point to.”

One person whose life would be significantly complicated by the nullified verdict is Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D), who would have to decide whether to open a new trial.

Bragg became the first prosecutor to indict a former president in April 2023, but even Trump critics have raised questions about his case. The New York case is the least serious of the four facing Trump and is widely seen as the prosecutor’s weakest case.

Even if Bragg decides that a retrial is worthwhile in the event of a disagreement in the jury’s verdict, such a showdown is unlikely to occur before the 2024 election.

Prosecutors have decided not to pursue a second trial in an old political case that has similarities to the Trump-Daniels case.

In 2012, former Sen. John Edwards (R-DC) was indicted in a case involving payments made by an associate to support a woman with whom he had had an affair and fathered a child.

Prosecutors argued the payments were illegal campaign contributions because Edwards was a candidate in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary that was ultimately won by former President Barack Obama.

Edwards was indicted on six charges, after a jury acquitted him on one count and left the other five unresolved, after which the Department of Justice announced it was dropping the case.

Trump’s New York trial requires unanimity among all 12 jurors for a conviction or acquittal.

There is no strict deadline for the jury to reach a verdict, but given that the trial began in mid-April, the 12 New Yorkers are no doubt eager to finish their duties and get back to their normal lives.

Trump faces 34 felony charges of falsifying business records in a case that revolves around a $130,000 hush money payment made to Daniels in the final days of the 2016 presidential campaign.

If the jury hasn’t reached a verdict after several days and tells Judge Juan Marchan they’re not making progress, he can resort to something called an “Allen charge.” Legal jargon aside, the mechanism is essentially a plea from the judge to the jury to try harder to reach a verdict. It doesn’t weaken the unanimity requirement.

If there’s still no sign of a 12-0 verdict, Marchand will have no choice but to declare a mistrial. It’s possible that the jury could reach a decision on some of the 34 charges and deadlock on others, but most of the 34 charges are fairly similar.

Opinion about Trump is divided along sharp partisan lines.

An Economist/YouGov poll this week asked people whether they viewed the investigation into President Trump’s hush-money scandal as fair or unfair.

78% of Democrats thought the poll was fair, 72% of Republicans thought it was unfair, and independents were almost evenly split between the three camps: 36% thought it was fair, 32% thought it was unfair and 32% didn’t know.

Democratic strategist Mark Longabaugh said he believes the election will ultimately be decided by political, not legal, factors, including how the candidates perform in the first debate, scheduled for June 27.

“A lot of political events have yet to occur,” Longabaugh said. “At the end of the day, sadly, this trial is not going to change the status quo.”

This note is a reporting column by Niall Stanage.