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What is the likelihood of the US experiencing its longest government shutdown ever?

How close are we to the longest government shutdown in US history?

(NEXSTAR) — Today marks the 14th day of the federal government shutdown, which has now become the 21st such event in the last 50 years, and there’s still no resolution in sight.

The Senate is expected to cast a vote on a continuing resolution regarding government funding, a measure that has already been passed by the House. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a Republican, has scheduled a solo vote for 5:30 p.m. ET.

Interestingly, Senate Democrats won’t get to vote on these funding measures. It seems that only House Republicans are set to decide on the bill they’ve drafted, which is valid until November 21.

In other developments, House Speaker Mike Johnson from Louisiana has called off previously planned votes and indicated that this shutdown might be the longest on record.

But is it really going to be the longest?

Since 1977, most government shutdowns have wrapped up within a week, as outlined in Congressional records.

This marks the fourth government shutdown occurring during Donald Trump’s presidency, yet it’s the first one since he began his second term. The record for the longest government shutdown happened in 2019 during Trump’s first term.

As of today, we’re at 14 days, making it the fifth longest on the current list.

If an agreement isn’t reached by Thursday, this shutdown could tie for the fourth longest, equating it to 2013 when Barack Obama was president. Should it last through Friday, it would become the third longest shutdown, surpassed only by the events of 1978 during Jimmy Carter’s presidency. If it drags on into next week, it may even exceed the second longest shutdown, which occurred under Bill Clinton.

No president has experienced more government shutdowns than Ronald Reagan, who oversaw eight during the 1980s. However, none of those lasted more than three days.

The core of the current funding debate revolves around health care subsidies. Democrats are warning that if these subsidies—which affect 22 million Americans—expire as planned at the year’s end, health care costs will significantly rise. Meanwhile, Republicans maintain that Democrats should support a temporary funding bill first before engaging in discussions about the subsidies.

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