In October, the German ZEW business confidence index rose to 39.3, increasing from 37.3 in September, although it fell short of market expectations, which were set at 40.5.
Meanwhile, the current situation index worsened, dropping from -76.4 to -80. This was contrary to forecasts that anticipated a figure of -75.
Market Reaction
The euro against the US dollar is holding steady around 1.1550 following the disappointing ZEW report from Germany. At the moment, the pair is down by 0.11% for the day.
Today’s Euro Price
The following table illustrates today’s percentage changes of the euro against major currencies, noting it was weakest against the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Australian Dollar | New Zealand Dollar | Swiss Franc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.10% | 0.46% | -0.12% | 0.19% | 0.94% | 0.65% | -0.06% | |
| EUR | -0.10% | 0.36% | -0.21% | 0.08% | 0.88% | 0.56% | -0.15% | |
| GBP | -0.46% | -0.36% | -0.57% | -0.26% | 0.51% | 0.24% | -0.50% | |
| JPY | 0.12% | 0.21% | 0.57% | 0.32% | 1.04% | 0.74% | 0.02% | |
| CAD | -0.19% | -0.08% | 0.26% | -0.32% | 0.79% | 0.47% | -0.24% | |
| Australian Dollar | -0.94% | -0.88% | -0.51% | -1.04% | -0.79% | -0.32% | -1.03% | |
| New Zealand Dollar | -0.65% | -0.56% | -0.24% | -0.74% | -0.47% | 0.32% | -0.71% | |
| Swiss Franc | 0.06% | 0.15% | 0.50% | -0.02% | 0.24% | 1.03% | 0.71% |
This heat map illustrates the percentage change among major currencies, with the base currency on the left and the quote currency at the top. For instance, if you look at EUR in relation to USD, the change shown in the box indicates the value of EUR in comparison to USD.
This part was published at 07:20 Japan time as a preview of Germany’s ZEW survey.
Germany ZEW Survey Overview
The German Economic Sentiment Index and Current Conditions Index are set to be released later today at 9:00 GMT.
The Economic Sentiment Index is anticipated to improve to 40.5 this October from 37.3 previously. The current conditions sub-index is also expected to rise to -75.0 from -76.4.
Impact of Germany’s ZEW Study on EUR/USD
If the ZEW data outperforms expectations, the EUR/USD pair could see some upward movement. However, ongoing political instability in France might amplify downward pressure if there’s any sign of trouble. Traders are also closely monitoring a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell today.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron has reappointed Sébastien Lecorne as prime minister and formed a new cabinet. Yet, the opposition leaders are pushing for a no-confidence motion against Lecorne’s administration. Additionally, Lecorne is expected to present the 2026 budget proposal to the new cabinet today.
Germany’s final inflation figures for September didn’t notably influence the EUR/USD pair. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) climbed by 2.4% year-on-year, aligning with predictions. The monthly inflation rate remained at 0.2% in September.
As for the EUR/USD pair, it’s currently trading around 1.1570. The sentiment appears bearish as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50, indicating potential testing of the two-month low at 1.1542.
On the upside, the main resistance point is the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1627, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.1671. A breakthrough at these levels could enhance momentum, pushing the EUR/USD towards a monthly high of 1.1778.
