Don’t look now, but the only team more likely to win the World Series this season than the Yankees is the Dodgers.
At least, that’s according to Fangraphs, which projected the Braves as overwhelming favorites to win the championship a year ago this time last October, only for 104-win Atlanta to lose to the 90-win Phillies in the National League Finals.
That’s how it goes in the playoffs, but the Yankees have won seven of their last eight games since their ugly loss at Boston on July 26 and are at least in contention for the championship.
At the time, Baltimore was considered the favorite to win the American League East, but improved play and a relatively easy schedule worked in the Yankees’ favor.
Currently, the Yankees have a 58.9 percent chance of winning the division, while Baltimore has a 40.3 percent chance.
Then the Angels come to the Bronx on Tuesday, followed by the Rangers, who don’t look like a threat to win a second straight World Series, then the historically weak White Sox and then Detroit. The Yankees are in the midst of a 15-game streak without playing a team with a winning percentage of at least .500.
Besides doing what they have to do against weaker opponents, what else has to go right for the Yankees to surpass the Orioles, win the AL East and be a real threat in the postseason?
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto must stay healthy.
The Yankees are desperate to protect Judge, who was treated like Barry Bonds by Toronto last weekend (or, as Aaron Boone put it, like Aaron Judge), and continue to rely heavily on their two stars.
Judge injured his toe last year and had no hope of returning in the second half of the season, while Soto has been playing this year through a bruised right hand that he aggravated Sunday.
The Yankees have yet to find an ideal combination of Soto at second base and Judge at third base, and if they don’t, Judge will likely have to throw even fewer pitches.
Gerrit Cole should be an ace.
The Yankees breathed a collective sigh of relief on Sunday after Cole pitched well against Toronto after missing the game against Philadelphia.
But Cole has yet to match the effectiveness, much less dominance, he has shown over the past six seasons.
He’s allowed more hits and home runs than at any point in that span, and he hasn’t struck out nearly as many batters.
Can Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu return?
Torres bounced back well last season, and LeMahieu also performed reasonably well in the second half.
It seems like such a long time ago as both continue to struggle.
It remains to be seen what impact, if any, Aaron Boone’s benching of Torres during games will have, but LeMahieu was solid at the plate this week after a shaky few months.
Can Clay Holmes bounce back?
He has only missed three saves in his first 30 games, but six in his last 17 games.
Over that same 17-game span, opposing hitters have an OPS of .820 against closers compared to an OPS of .581 over the first 30 games.
The Yankees keep saying he’s pitching poorly, and many advanced indicators back that up, but his recent results have been poor.
