Everyone wants peace in Ukraine. But Russia wants it on Russian terms, which means no more Ukraine.
Ukraine wants it on Ukraine's terms – Russia returns to Russia, not Ukraine. And those who are not directly involved in the war are categorized into either pro-Russian or pro-Ukrainian groups.
Two of the most visible pro-Russian figures in America are Ohio Sens. J.D. Vance and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who also happen to be prominent members of Donald Trump's presidential campaign. . Neither Mr. Vance nor Mr. Kennedy describe themselves as pro-Russian, but they do have hostility toward military armaments. And equipping Ukraine since the early days of the conflict (uncomfortably hidden under calls for de-escalation) has done much to advance Russia's military objectives. .
If the Trump administration is elected, it is likely to promote peace in favor of Russia.
It's important to find out what that means. In addition to Crimea, Russia wants four other Ukrainian regions: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhia, most of which are currently occupied by Russian forces. It also wants to “demilitarize” Ukraine and prevent it from forming military alliances with its European neighbors. Ukraine would be banned from joining NATO.
This is the peace Kennedy and Vance want. It is a small, defenseless Ukraine that depends on Russia for its survival.
The problem is that Ukrainians are already trying to make peace with Russia. It didn't work. As of 2014, the country is largely demilitarized, its air force a shadow of its current self, and its military largely on paper. Russia's first invasion, which occurred immediately after the Maidan revolution, triggered a wave of volunteerism in the Ukrainian army, filling vacant military positions with motivated and idealistic citizens.
They fought harder and better than Russia expected, resulting in a ceasefire with Russia in 2015. Minsk II. This temporary peace gave Russia de facto control of Crimea and, ironically, two regions of Ukraine called the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic. Although Russia did not achieve its objective, it was still very damaging to Ukraine.
Imposing Russian peace on Ukraine through diplomacy will have two major consequences. First, the roughly 4 million Ukrainian refugees currently in Europe and the United States will remain instead of returning to countries they know are unsafe from Russian aggression.
Second, a mass exodus of Ukrainians will begin. The organization includes at least millions of people, including Ukrainians and their families who participated in military operations against Russia, politicians, journalists, non-profit volunteers, civil servants and their families who worked for an independent and free Ukraine. It will be. . More people may quit. They will flee to Europe and America. Only the most patriotic and fearless Ukrainians will remain in defenseless Ukraine.
In other words, if peace is achieved on Russia's terms, approximately 8 to 12 million (or more) Ukrainians will remain in Europe or the United States or flee there with no hope of returning. Dew.
What plans do Vance and RFK Jr. have for these millions of refugees? Well, if you ask Vance about immigration, he'll say he's going to deport immigrants. This is not a plan at all. Taken at face value, this is at worst a death sentence for Ukrainians, and at best a lazy evasion.
To his credit, Trump has recently taken a step back from the Vance-Kennedy camp. After meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in late September, President Trump pledged to promote A “just” peace for Ukraine. Naturally, such a peace would not be very favorable to Russia.
The Democratic ticket of Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Tim Walz has not announced a viable plan to oust Russia from Ukrainian territory and support Ukraine in a defensive war to seek justice against Russian aggression. There is no clear path to victory for Ukraine. But there is no viable plan on the Republican ticket to end the war without causing death and misery for millions of people and destabilizing Europe and America.
It's convenient to say, “It doesn't matter to us,” but either way, if we reduce the population of Europe and America by 1 percent in a month, or by standing by and watching the genocide of Ukrainians. , it will affect us. .
Those who claim to want peace on Russia's terms must present in detail how it will work in reality, more than empty words. For the remaining Americans, about 70 percent, who want peace in Ukraine on Ukraine's terms, they will be happy to hear how Harris and Walz aim to achieve it.
Adrian Bohnenberger is an author and U.S. Army veteran. he is a co-founder of American Veterans to Ukraine.
