A strange feature of the Brexiteer psyche is that the disastrous outcome they once so actively sought for Britain is now blamed on cunning European negotiators, led then by Michel Barnier.
And his re-emergence as France's candidate for prime minister would unleash the usual wave of outrage, with tiresome predictability. “I thought this was the last we'd see of Barnier after the Brexit negotiations. He was determined to get the UK the worst deal,” said Conservative MP John Hayes, while former cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg declared that Barnier was “no friend of the UK.”
And given that Liz Truss once suggested that “the jury is still out” on whether Emmanuel Macron is Britain's “friend or foe,” the French president's nomination of the EU's former chief Brexit negotiator as prime minister is sure to cause special hysteria. The Daily Telegraph quoted Patrick O'Flynn (a Brexiteer, former British Member of Parliament and former aide to Farage) as saying:Proof that Macron hates Britain“
Their fragile mental state is unlikely to be improved by the conversations I had with Mr Starmer while writing his biography, about the years when European countries regarded the previous Conservative government as having somehow collapsed.
He said that at the formal start of negotiations in 2017, a well-prepared Barnier “turned up with a van full of documents in colour-coded ring binders, while David Davis [the then Brexit secretary] He just walked in carrying only his glasses case.
As Davis's counterpart, Starmer met with Barnier on several occasions to work out the detailed options for a “bespoke” customs union, a process in which their shared attention to detail helped to foster a mutual respect between them. When I suggested that I might speak to Barnier, the Labour leader pulled out his mobile phone, on which, coincidentally, he still had his number.
My book cites the resulting interview, in which the veteran centre-right French politician explains that he thought even then that Starmer would one day become a centre-left Prime Minister for the UK. “He was always learning,” Barnier says. “He got better day by day, year by year. Everyone else was making mistakes, but he was careful. From the first time I met him, I thought he had something special.”
Of course, since then Starmer has painted himself into a corner by refusing not only to rejoin the EU but also to join the customs union and the single market. Many critics, both inside and outside the Labour party, believe this is overly cautious and overly cautious.
But looking back at notes from conversations with Mr Barnier, there are clues as to how the government could mitigate at least some of the damage.
Just as when Starmer was shadow Brexit secretary, there are two red lines. The EU appears not to accept any of what Barnier calls “cherry-picking”, rejecting a modest British proposal to ease restrictions on musicians touring Britain after Brexit. Meanwhile, the government was quick to dismiss as “free movement by the back door” plans from Brussels that would allow citizens under 30 to study and work in both the EU and Britain. Progress can be made on an agreement on trade restrictions on food and drink, but this would inevitably trigger new hysteria that Britain will once again find itself before the European Court of Justice.
While acknowledging there was limited scope for improvement on those issues without major renegotiations, Barnier said the real opportunity lay in the original political declaration signed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, which pledged greater cooperation on defence and security. “Given what a Labour government can do, that part of the treaty is still open to negotiation.”
And this is exactly what's behind it Starmer's 'reset' on relations with European leaders It began at the Blenheim summit shortly after the election, where the prime minister emphasised the “blood ties of 1945” in which Europe stood up to fascism. Russia's war against Ukraine, beyond the EU's borders, and raging right-wing populism within the bloc, represent new, existential dangers to Europe's liberal democratic values. Potentially, so too do threats ranging from terrorism and the climate crisis to refugees and misinformation on digital platforms. As Barnier told me, “It would be better for the UK to tackle these problems in partnership with the EU than to tackle them alone.”
Britain's efforts to secure a European security pact are already gaining momentum, with Foreign Secretary David Lammy due to attend a summit in October that is usually attended only by his EU counterparts. But making this more than just a series of formal meetings will be difficult. For example, the government is keen to secure closer cooperation on data sharing with crime-fighting agencies to crack down on human trafficking rings that transport illegal migrants in small boats. Starmer is also seeking support from Macron, and perhaps now Barnier, to overcome the self-interested opposition of the French defence industry to Britain joining an EU-wide effort to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs.
Even these limited gains will not be easy. But Starmer not only has the advantage of respectful relationships with other European leaders, but also heads a government that has been a sign of relative stability in the context of the months-long political crisis that has paralyzed France. Indeed, Barnier's appointment has sparked even more outrage from the French left than from the country's pro-Brexit right.
For now at least, it looks like Britain isn't in such a bad situation after all, and Mr Barnier will be aware of that.
