It's easy to see why some people become a little cynical when, just five weeks before the presidential election, the FBI reports that violent crime will be down in 2023. negative public perception Crime-related issues are a challenge for the Biden-Harris administration. However, some studies have not found significant reductions in violent crime rates. More importantly, the FBI does not mention one crime statistic that has been in the news a lot in recent years: shoplifting.
According to FBI report“Crime statistics estimates based on data reported in 2023 show that national violent crime in 2023 decreased by an estimated 3.0% compared to 2022 estimates.” That's true. That would be good, but not a significant decrease.
The report also found that murders and manslaughter decreased by 11.6%, rape by 9.4% and robbery by 0.3%. In contrast, motor vehicle thefts increased by 12.6%.
Why should we be skeptical of the FBI's findings? First of all, it depends on the “participating law enforcement agencies.” Additionally, some agencies, such as the Los Angeles Police Department, are not participating. Additionally, if people do not report crimes to police, they may not be counted.
There are others too. Jeffrey H. Anderson, former director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), I was reminded of this in the Wall Street Journal. The bureau is conducting its own investigation, the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). The study, which was based on responses from about 230,000 households rather than law enforcement, found that violent crime increased by 19 percent between 2019 and 2023. Professor Anderson also highlighted that violent crime rates in urban areas are rising even faster, increasing by 54 per cent between 2019 and 2023. , which is more in line with public perception. Rural and suburban violent crime rates remain virtually unchanged over this period.
But what has received a lot of attention in recent years is the prevalence of brazen shoplifting. Often, several robbers, sometimes armed, break into a store and steal thousands of dollars worth of merchandise. Or one or two thieves may casually wander down the aisles of a store and toss expensive items into bags.
The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) released a report after “examining monthly crime rates for violent, property, and drug crimes in 12 cities in 39 U.S. cities.'' June interim report. According to the CCJ, almost all crime rates increased from the first half of 2023 to the first half of 2024, with the exception of “a 24% increase in the recognition rate of shoplifting, a crime that has received widespread attention from the media and policy makers.” decreased.
In the latest report published a year ago, National Retail Federation (NRF) points out“As retail crime continues to escalate across the United States, retailers are experiencing significantly increased financial losses related to theft. As a percentage of total retail sales in 2022, shrink losses will be (“Shrink” is primarily theft, but can also include other types of loss.)
As a result of the explosion in retail theft, many businesses have closed stores in several urban areas due to both unsustainable losses and concerns for employee safety. The NRF states that “retailers have been forced to close certain stores (28%), reduce operating hours (45%), and reduce or change in-store product assortments (30%) as a direct result of retail crime. It is reported that.
Two-thirds of retailers said criminals are becoming more violent. As a result, “more retailers are adopting a 'hands-off' approach out of fear of shoplifters. 41 survey respondents say they don't give their employees the power to stop or arrest shoplifters. %), compared to 38% last year.
If Anderson is correct that crime in cities is increasing while crime in suburbs and rural areas is decreasing or stable, then the explanation could be explained by progressive policies such as “defunding the police.” policies and a significant increase in the amount thieves are allowed to steal (for example, $950). It is considered a felony.
From a thief's perspective, when they can break into drug stores and department stores in San Francisco, Chicago, and New York City and steal thousands of dollars, why break into a home that has little value to steal, perhaps in a low-income area? Is it necessary? Even if he gets $1 worth of goods, will no one be able to stop him?
it is famous Willie Sutton's reaction. When asked why he robbed banks, Sutton replied, “Because that's where the money is.” In a big blue city with a highly progressive district attorney, mayor, and city council that frowns upon rampant theft, the gold (or goods) is in retail stores.
Therefore, while crime may be decreasing or leveling off in some categories, it may be because criminals have found more lucrative and safer ways to carry out their occupations. Democrats, Vice President Kamala Harris, and the media want to promote the FBI's new crime reduction statistics. But the real story is an increase in retail theft that is a direct result of their progressive policies.
Merrill Matthews is a public policy and political analyst and co-author of On the Edge: America Faces the Entitlements Cliff. please follow him X@Meryl Matthews.
