What to know about Mexico’s presidential election

May 27, 2024

Editor’s note: This story has been updated to correct election date.

Mexico is set to vote on Sunday in a crucial presidential election that will determine who succeeds outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a populist whose nationalistic stance has led to on-and-off relations with the United States.

Lopez Obrador was elected in 2018. Mexican presidents are barred from running for a second six-year term.

Who are Mexico’s presidential candidates?

The front-runner in the race is former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, who is a member of Lopez Obrador’s Morena party and has his backing, but questions about her record have led some to question whether she will fully follow in his footsteps.

Sheinbaum’s rivals are Xochitl Gálvez of the conservative National Action Party and Jorge Mainez of the minority Citizen Movement Party.

This composite file photo shows Xochitl Galvez, left, arriving to register as a presidential candidate in Mexico City on July 4, 2023, and Claudia Sheinbaum, right, attending an event to introduce her as the party’s presidential candidate in Mexico City on Sept. 6, 2023. The two women, both considered front-runners for Mexico’s presidential election, discussed social spending and climate change during the second debate on Sunday, April 28, 2024, also featuring Jorge Alvarez Mainez. (Associated Press Photo/Fernando Llano, File)

Either Sheinbaum or Galvez will become the country’s first female president, and Sheinbaum will be the country’s first Jewish head of state.

Election polls have Galvez trailing Sheinbaum by double digits and Minez’s approval rating is below 10 percent.

What does Morena support?

Lopez Obrador founded Morena in 2014 and has molded the party’s left-wing populist policies in his own image.

Sheinbaum supports Lopez Obrador’s policies, including oil expansion, railroad construction and government-sponsored welfare. The Associated Press reported. Her more traditional left-wing background means some ideas may be ignored.

Who is Claudia Scheinbaum?

Scheinbaum cut her teeth in academia, earning a PhD in environmental engineering before joining government, and despite four years at the helm of the nation’s largest city, her personal life remains a mystery to many and she has a very low-key personality.

She is now seen as a likely successor to the gregarious President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and must walk a tightrope between adhering to his popular policies and carving out her own path in national politics.

That could include reversing Lopez Obrador’s strategy by taking power away from the military and transferring it to the police, investing in renewable energy and equipping government with the latest technology.

Born into a family of left-wing political activists, she became politically active as a student, a far cry from the image of Lopez Obrador whose rapid rise and populist appeal have drawn comparisons with former President Donald Trump.

Unlike Lopez Obrador, Mr. Sheinbaum speaks fluent English, is a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California, Berkeley and has a daughter living in the U.S., meaning his presidency could lead to better relations with the U.S. than the sometimes-cryptic tenure of Mr. Lopez Obrador.

What’s at stake for Mexico? USMCA, congressional elections

The successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement (USMCA), concluded in 2020, is also due to be renegotiated in 2026, meaning the next president will represent Mexico at the negotiating table for key economic agreements.

The election takes on added importance this weekend as all 628 seats in Mexico’s Senate and House of Representatives are up for election, with around 100 million people expected to vote across the country.

Updated 10:03 p.m.