Politics is an area of life where everyone talks as if they were a prophet, and most people get the future very wrong, but their predictions rarely have any consequences.
But politics, at least in terms of outcomes, are not irrelevant. Who wins matters a lot. The winner is often a foregone conclusion. Beating an incumbent is nearly impossible.
But 2024 is an exception: the big prize for the presidency could go to either candidate. It’s a rare election in which how the front-runners run matters more than who they are.
This will be the sixth presidential rematch, following Jefferson v. Adams (1796 and 1800), Adams v. Jackson (1824 and 1828), Van Buren v. Harrison (1836 and 1840), Cleveland v. Harrison (1888 and 1892), McKinley v. Bryan (1896 and 1900), and Eisenhower v. Stevenson (1952 and 1956).
But it will be the first time since 1892 that a race will be decided in a “best of three” format, with an incumbent facing the incumbent he previously defeated, and in which both candidates are likely to be the best-known in the country.
Donald Trump and Joe Biden have a 99.999% name recognition rating. If you’ve been sober even once in the last eight years, you know who these two people are and probably already have strong opinions about them.
Public opinion saturation will be an obstacle for both men, as they both inspire clearly negative feelings among large segments of the public, but Trump has an advantage here in that he commands a great deal of passion that Biden lacks.
Democrats seem more motivated to oppose Donald Trump than to vote for Joe Biden, which is why liberals are so desperate to stoke paranoia and fear about Trump and his supporters. Cable TV is churning out stories about him being a “threat to democracy” and “Deprogramming“People who have no interest in toeing the Democratic Party line.”
Trump doesn’t need to convince these people to vote for him, but he does need to overcome the tension in the Democratic message that’s always been present in the culture. Many on the left and in the entertainment industry have an almost Pavlovian response to any mention of Trump: Tourette-like outbursts of expletive-laced rhetoric that have a subtle cumulative effect on those exposed to it.
Trump needs to avoid being “that guy” when they meet in person. He can’t seem to talk too much about himself. Yes, that’s his brand, and a weird part of his appeal, but he’s secured the support of all who are drawn to it, and they’re stuck. The sympathizers have been lectured, and the supporters have had their fill of red meat. It’s time to pitch the tent.
Every poll favors the Republican front-runner, unless the Republican front-runner is the problem. Trump needs to appeal to people who don’t want to vote for him, but can’t imagine Biden lasting another four years. To do that, he needs to focus on the failures of the past four years compared to his own term: the economy, the border, inflation, insecurity abroad. That could give him an easy win.
If Trump spends too much time complaining about his lot — and to be clear, I believe he has been unfairly cornered by the Democratic legal battles in an unprecedented way, so it’s entirely reasonable to debate this — he will lose. Voting for president is not a pity party. Voters want to know what you’re getting, not what they’re getting for voting for you. If Trump can stay focused, he will win.
With Biden, it’s even simpler: He’s nearly impossible to win, but his best chance is for everyone who hides him from serious interviews and public appearances to emerge in public as the person he claims to be in private: a dynamic man in command of the conversation and the facts, something Biden isn’t when reading from a teleprompter, but he needs to be when he’s in front of people.
America’s enemies are more motivated to do evil when they realize their enemy is an old man who speaks in the breathless voice of someone who’s been drinking all night and is falling asleep…Daytime photo shoot.
Each candidate’s greatest strength is their opponent. Each candidate’s greatest weakness is themselves. The first candidate to realize this and take action will win. This will be the biggest hurdle each candidate will have to overcome.
Derek Hunter is Derek Hunter Podcast Host He is a former staff member of the late Senator Conrad Burns (R-Montana).
