President-elect Donald Trump's new desire to acquire Greenland, by force if necessary, is causing a huge uproar in Denmark, Greenland, and NATO Europe. Denmark and Greenland's political leadership, which is responsible for Greenland's defense, oppose the idea of ceding Greenland to the United States. However, an invasion of Greenland is not necessarily on the agenda.
If a U.S. invasion appeared imminent, Denmark and one or more other NATO allies would likely invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which would require each NATO parliament to protect Greenland. Voting will be required. As stated in the Treaty, “In the event of such an armed attack, each State Party shall… individually and in coordination with the other States Parties, take immediate such action, including the use of force.” shall assist States Parties affected by such armed attack by deploying military forces to restore and maintain security in the North Atlantic region. ”
In other words, former NATO allies could band together to support Greenland if Washington chooses to invade it. In fact, the U.S. Congress could, improbably, vote to act under Article 5, thereby committing the United States to defending Greenland from its own invading forces.
Perhaps the bigger concern, and more realistic, is that Article 42.7 The European Union's 2007 Treaty of Lisbon automatically obligates member states to provide mutual military defense. Unlike the North Atlantic Treaty, legislative recognition is not provided for. Therefore, allied forces in NATO Europe (with the exception of Canada, which is not an EU member) will be dedicated to countering American aggression.
Neither of these scenarios is likely to occur. And President Trump's concerns about the Far North are valid. It is natural to seek stronger defenses against potential Chinese and Russian operations in the region. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has indicated she is open to discussing these concerns with the next president. And there is much that Denmark and other NATO allies can do to strengthen the alliance's defenses in Greenland, if they wish.
Denmark should agree to finance most of the costs of additional facilities and bases to be established in Greenland. It is noteworthy that the Japanese government spends $2 billion, which is up to 70 percent of the total annual cost of the United States' military operations in Japan. The Seoul government is spending about $1 billion to do something similar in South Korea. Denmark should commit to providing at least as high a share as Japan in supporting American operations in Greenland.
Greenland is currently the host country Pitafik Space Baseformerly known as Thule Air Base, is located in northwestern Greenland. The United States also operated an air base at Sondreström in central Greenland until 1992, when the base was converted to a civilian airport. The Cold War was over, and Washington no longer considered Russia a threat to Western security. Only a small Air National Guard detachment remains active in Sondreström.
As a first step, Denmark could expand its military facilities near the civilian airport in Sondreström. The now-closed Rhein-Main Air Base provides a model for such a deployment. The base was adjacent to Frankfurt International Airport and shared runways and facilities.
Denmark currently spends about 1.6% of its GDP on defense. The Danish government has committed to meeting the alliance's 2% military spending target over the next few years, but NATO is likely to raise that target to 3%. Reaching that level of defense spending while pledging to spend money on expanding the US presence in Greenland would undoubtedly strain Denmark's budget.
Other NATO allies, especially the Far North countries, should consider expanding their airports to accommodate military facilities and thereby contributing to the increased costs of easing Denmark's financial burden. Ultimately, an increased American presence in Greenland would be a powerful contribution to NATO's common defense. The U.S. government and NATO should also consider crediting Danish spending in Greenland toward the 3% goal.
There is little doubt that NATO needs to do more to secure its northern flank. So Trump's concerns are not without reason. However, this issue does not necessarily have to cause the US government to consider military action.
Funding the expansion of America's presence on the island, with Denmark and perhaps other countries following the example of America's Asian allies and funding its expansion, would conjure up a nightmare scenario for Europe. and provide a practical solution to the need to strengthen NATO's northern security. War with our most powerful and closest allies.
Dov S. Zakheim is Center for Strategic and International Studies and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors Foreign Policy Research Institute. He served as Under Secretary of Defense (Inspector General) and Chief Financial Officer of the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and as Deputy Secretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.
