The Great Reckoning started in 2022 when Moscow fully invaded Ukraine. This shift impacted not just Ukrainians but Russians as well.
What was initially framed as a brief military operation has devolved into a prolonged and brutal conflict, now extending into its fourth year.
For centuries, Moscow has drawn on imperial narratives to shape its identity, presenting itself as the “third Rome” and its leader as a sort of “Emperor” or “Caesar.” These tales have historically justified Russia’s expansion and conquests. However, as Ukraine continues to resist, those narratives are beginning to disintegrate. Now, the Russian populace must navigate the long-standing indoctrination and grapple with what it means to step away from imperial identity.
Recently, Russians have had to confront a challenging question that they’ve long evaded: What happens to Russia if it doesn’t take over Ukraine? This thought is difficult for many Russians and their allies in the West to consider. Over the years, Russian leaders have attempted to erase Ukrainian distinctiveness, claiming that Ukrainians and Russians are essentially “one people.” Putin echoed this idea in his controversial 2021 essay, which laid the groundwork for the subsequent invasion.
Yet, history narrates a different saga. The Russian people trace their roots back to Slavic and Finno-Ugric tribes, with deep historical ties to the Mongols after the Kievan Rus fell in the mid-13th century. In contrast, Ukrainians descended from Slavic Ruthenians and were influenced more by the western-oriented Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
In the 17th century, chronicles note that Ukrainians and Russians viewed each other as foreigners during conflicts with the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, requiring interpreters for effective communication.
Beginning in the late 17th century, what we now call Moscow gradually took over much of Ruthenian territory. The efforts to impose Russification on Ukraine’s culture, language, and religion lasted for nearly two centuries, suggesting that Ukrainians and Russians were not the same people.
Any lingering doubts about Ukrainian identity disappeared in the 20th century when Ukrainians initiated national liberation movements, despite facing defeat by Soviet forces.
Vladimir Putin has likened himself to Peter the Great, suggesting he aims to reclaim lost Russian territories. However, the current reality is grim; countless Russians have lost their lives with little to show for the sacrifices. As the state weakens, many might begin to envision a future where a freer, more prosperous Ukraine exists, questioning whether the imperial ambitions were truly worth it.
In light of potential dissatisfaction over the war, President Putin seems to be tightening domestic control through increased law enforcement spending, projected to rise by 13% to 3.91 trillion rubles by 2026. Together with military budgets, security expenses now account for a significant 38% of Russia’s overall budget, overshadowing investments in social welfare, education, and health care. Vice President JD Vance rightly pointed out that there’s a harsh reality Russians need to accept: many lives are being lost without tangible benefits.
If the war concludes with an unsuccessful conquest of Ukraine, the Kremlin will have to reassess the fate of hundreds of thousands of returning soldiers who fought under the imperial banner but may realize that the promised glory was an illusion.
As disheartening as it is for Putin to confront the loss of Ukraine, the Russian people face an even greater dilemma. Who are they in a world where they no longer have Kyiv, the historical heart of the Kievan Rus? If Ukrainians have redefined part of the imperial narrative, what does that leave for the Russians? Can they relinquish their imperial identity and come to terms with being one nation among many?
Ultimately, they may find they have no choice—either they voluntarily relinquish the weight of imperial history or face the chaos of an ongoing, fruitless conflict.
Whatever decisions lie ahead, they will likely be painful. The Russian people can either choose to escape the shackles of an empire, accepting the burden of their past, or face the potential for disaster if they do not.
Ironic as it may seem, had the war with Ukraine never occurred, Russians might have continued living comfortably in a fantasy of empire.
