Congress rejected a six-month budget bill last week. Technically, lawmakers only rejected the SAVE Act package, but in reality, it killed House Republicans' momentum and influence.
Doing nothing at this point is not an acceptable option and the government will be “shut down” at midnight seven days from now. So what's next? For now, a short-term Continuing Resolution that will provide three months of funding for the government.
This is almost a certainty, because Congress can put off difficult decisions until the future.
Have you ever told your child that if they misbehave before school they can't have dessert that night, but it's forever away, so they're not upset? That child is Congress. It's three months after the election, so they might as well not be there, and by then it's almost Christmas.
Trump is not entirely in favor of a forever war with Ukraine, but that is simply not tolerated in Washington, so they will try to lock him away.
Nobody is going to shut down the government over a fight over spending in December. Sure, we're literally a long way from an election in a country that forgets about assassination attempts in two weeks, but the holidays are coming up, everybody wants out of town, and nobody wants to cut off Social Security payments. So they're going to make a deal.
You'd think this would be a new CR opportunity, giving the new administration some control over its own policy in its first year, but it would mean Republicans fighting for it and defeating the Pentagon guys who want a big, nasty omnibus bill.
The reality is that most politicians want a big, obnoxious omnibus bill. For them, it's a little Christmas extravaganza, loaded with all sorts of perks, giveaways, and special measures. But more than that, it allows Congress to determine the foreign policy of the next administration for the first year or more. If former President Donald Trump wins in November, this will be a top priority for the one-party government.
If Trump wins the White HouseOne can expect him to want to negotiate his foreign policy. With basic respect for the presidency, that would be possible, but Trump is not entirely in favor of a forever war with Ukraine, and that would never be tolerated in Washington, so they will try to lock him away.
How? In a giant, obnoxious omnibus, of course.
Pentagon enthusiasts want this. Neocon radio host Hugh Hewitt also praised the spending measure on his Friday morning show, crowing that it will prepare us for war next year.
next yearHe did say so, and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky wholeheartedly agrees.
McConnell is staking his legacy on the Ukraine war. He plans to fight it as a senator after finally stepping down as party leader this fall. What better way to tie Trump to it than a comprehensive bill that would allocate billions of dollars to the war in the first 10 months of his administration? Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) introduced a bill this summer that would commit Trump to the war for 10 years. Ten years. This is the man who led the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. But politicians are shameless, and this bill could get bipartisan support if it's slipped into a comprehensive bill.
While Congress has generally given up on even passing laws, preferring instead to send vague directives to the executive branch, lawmakers still keep a tight lid on spending — remember, they impeached President Trump before for shaking down the Ukraine piggy bank.
Who cares what the Democrats are willing to pay for the war? Of course they've already agreed to everything, but they're better negotiators and will likely soften the terms anyway. That's where House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) comes in.
Johnson is doing well politically, which is great. Considering how badly he's done it, he's isolated, but Republicans are still hurting from the last fiasco and aren't very keen to do it again.
The general consensus is that if Trump wins and Republicans maintain or expand their House majority, Johnson can keep his job. Even so, the future hinges on a comprehensive bill. If the bill ends up being so big and so bad that Johnson has to garner more Democratic votes than Republicans to pass it, he could be in trouble.
As we've seen, it doesn't take much to send the House into disarray these days, and as we've seen with the six-month CR fiasco, there's already a group of finger-witted congressmen (and congresswomen) who are almost guaranteed to cause trouble. They might just make enough friends to really embarrass Johnson if he steps up as Democratic chairman again.
Of course, any fight will have to wait until Trump's inauguration in January. Will he be willing to accept any interruptions?
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In other news
New ad for the Freedom Caucus
The Freedom Caucus Foundation
New Advertisement While Democrats have publicly attacked former Speaker Scott Perry (R-PA) for his loyalty to the country, they have praised his military service.
The ad garnered 34,000 views on X (formerly Twitter) and many times that number on Facebook, but the cost was small compared to Democratic ads against the incumbent president, a popular target in the Republican+5 10th district. One TV ad bought by the Democratic House Campaign Committee featured a veteran
say“Perry deserves a court-martial,” said Perry, a former Black Hawk pilot and U.S. Army brigadier general who received a Bronze Star medal for his actions in Iraq.
Republicans in Washington sometimes discount races like Perry's, thinking the incumbents' voting records mean they can't be harmed, but Democrats' fundraising muscle has allowed them to play in unexpected districts and states, putting Republicans on the defensive from Maine to Texas. This is smart politics. It might be wise to realize it.
