On the evening of March 25th, Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, experienced what many described as political.surprise. ” In the 36th Republican district, Democrats seized unexpected upset in a special Senate election.
Josh Parsons, Republican Chairman of the Lancaster County Commission, lost 482 votes to James Malone, the Democratic mayor of East Petersburg. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is certainly a partisan Democrat who quickly congratulated Malone and praised the victory as a blow to “extremism coming from DC.”
Earthly reality is very different from the national mood often captured in voting data.
This result did not occur in the swing area. Lancaster County gave Donald Trump a 15-point margin in 2020, and has consistently voted for Republicans even before the civil war. Since moving here over 30 years ago, I have seen every state senator and almost every county civil servant win as a Republican. The same can be said for our representatives of Congress.
Parsons' predecessor, state Sen. Ryan Ament, regularly defeated Democrats. More than 2 to 1. Libertarian candidate Zachary Moore in last week's election I requested 480 votes – Most of them probably went to Parsons. But even those votes are unclear whether Parsons took the victory. And even if he had, the narrow victory remains below the long-standing GOP advantage in the district.
The Democrats won in Lancaster County by mobilizing their strongest voting block, including almost monopolies of college-educated white women and almost all black women. Their party also benefited from the flood of money provided by ordinary groups of culturally radical monetary rights.
Only 29% of registered voters in Lancaster County were found last Tuesday. But Democrats assured that their supporters had appeared.
I'm dull: I find bored and happy stories from Fox News – the claim that Democrats are in decline and doomed to lose all major races except the deep blue state until the end of time. If I were a bettor, I would support the Democrats in any race where the parties are thought to be even.
Republicans may face another difficult battle ahead Wisconsin Supreme Court Competition on April 1. The contest features Dane County's highly progressive district judge Susan Crawford against conservative Milwaukee area judge Brad Schemmel.
Despite Republican hopes, Crawford's leftist records have attracted significant financial support from donors such as Illinois Gov. J.B. Pretzker, George Soros, and the regular crowds of Wall Street and Hollywood. So far, Democrats have more than doubled what Shimmel has. Crawford also built an army of volunteer campaigners from left-wing bases.
Many well-known GOP figures are overly confident about party election opportunities, but often misinterpret data. They stock too much in the Democrats' low national vote count and don't realize that these numbers don't necessarily predict outcomes for a particular race.
Democrats consistently energise the base by defending progressive cultural status and defending railings against false “fascism” and fictional “Nazis.” This rhetoric motivates activists to eagerly donate time and money to causes they consider morally urgent. Outlets like Washington Examiners grievetoxicityThe democratic rhetoric “voters on the left often feel that this language is empowering, because just because conservatives react to inflammatory attacks from lawmakers like Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) and Maxine Waters (D-Calif) doesn't mean that their base is.
Democrats may retain just 29% of approval nationwide, but they maintain strong institutional support, including public sector unions and deep pocket donors. When government bureaucrats or teachers unions believe Donald Trump, Elon Musk, or other fiscal conservatives are threatening their funds, they take action to protect their interests. These permanent state allies do not need a high recognition rating – they need and have motivation.
A low vote alone won't stop Democrats from flipping deep red districts if Republicans rise at a big margin and mobilize enthusiastic volunteers. Earthly reality is very different from the national mood often captured in voting data.
In my own certain Republican district, the unpopularity of the Democratic people has not stopped me from shaking. What was supposed to be GOP lock turned into a warning: “Surprising.”
