When is the Tokyo CPI in Japan and how might it influence USD/JPY?

September 25, 2025

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Tokyo saw a 2.5% increase in September, down slightly from 2.6% the previous month, as reported by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.

Moreover, the Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food experienced a steady rise of 2.5% year-on-year in August, maintaining the same figure from the previous month. However, for September, the Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food and energy recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, down from a previous 3.0%.

Market Reaction to Tokyo CPI Data

As of now, the USD/JPY pair has risen by 0.65%, trading at 149.87.

Japanese Yen Performance Over the Last Week

The following table displays changes in the Japanese yen’s value against other major currencies over the past week. During this period, the yen has shown the most weakness against the US dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		1.31%	2.33%	1.96%	1.24%	1.83%	3.47%	1.42%
EUR	-1.31%		0.87%	0.65%	-0.05%	0.49%	2.24%	0.14%
GBP	-2.33%	-0.87%		-0.22%	-0.93%	-0.39%	1.27%	-0.73%
JPY	-1.96%	-0.65%	0.22%		-0.70%	-0.20%	1.46%	-0.50%
CAD	-1.24%	0.05%	0.93%	0.70%		0.56%	2.35%	0.19%
AUD	-1.83%	-0.49%	0.39%	0.20%	-0.56%		1.76%	-0.36%
NZD	-3.47%	-2.24%	-1.27%	-1.46%	-2.35%	-1.76%		-1.96%
CHF	-1.42%	-0.14%	0.73%	0.50%	-0.19%	0.36%	1.96%

This heatmap indicates how major currencies have changed in value relative to each other. You can see the percentage change for different pairs by selecting the base currency from the left and the currency to compare from the top row.

Published at 22:27 GMT as a preview of Japan’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Summary of Tokyo CPI in Japan

The Japan Statistics Bureau plans to release data at 23.30 GMT on Friday. The Tokyo CPI, which tracks price changes for goods and services purchased by households in the region, excludes fresh food. This index is often seen as a preliminary indicator for nationwide CPI, being published weeks in advance.

The CPI for Tokyo had a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in August, down from a rise of 2.9% in the previous month, while CPI excluding fresh food, energy reached 3.0% in August.

For September, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% is anticipated for the CPI excluding fresh food, which aligns with previous readings of 2.5%.

Implications for USD/JPY from Tokyo CPI

The USD/JPY pair is trading positively ahead of the release of the Tokyo CPI report. The US dollar has shown strength due to favorable economic data, and comments from Federal Reserve officials have added some mixed sentiment regarding their policy path.

If the CPI data turns out to be hotter than expected, there’s a possibility of the Japanese yen strengthening, particularly if it tests the psychological barrier at 150.00. There’s potential resistance around 150.84 from July 31, while a further peak at 151.21 was seen on March 28.

On the downside, the high from July 15 at 149.02 could provide some support for buyers. If losses persist, another key level to watch is the low from September 24 at 147.52, with an even lower level at 146.76 from August 29.

Economic Indicators

Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)

The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), monitored by the Statistics Bureau, tracks price changes in goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo area monthly. This is considered a critical indicator for the overall CPI in Japan, as it is released ahead of nationwide figures. The year-on-year reading compares the current month’s prices to those from the same month last year. Generally, higher readings are thought to be favorable for the Japanese yen, whereas lower ones are seen as adverse.

Bank of Japan FAQ

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is the nation’s central bank, tasked with establishing monetary policy to ensure price stability, which typically targets an inflation rate around 2%.

In 2013, the BOJ introduced an Ultra Loose Monetary Policy to stimulate economic growth in a low-expansion scenario. This involves quantitative and qualitative easing, which often means purchasing assets to inject liquidity into the economy. Then in 2016, the bank introduced negative interest rates and continued to adapt its strategies by managing government bond yields over the following decade. By March 2024, the BOJ began raising interest rates, signaling a shift from its accommodative stance.

Due to extensive stimulus measures, the yen has depreciated against other major currencies. This trend became more pronounced in 2022 and 2023, driven by diverging policies between the BOJ and other leading central banks. However, in 2024, the BOJ’s decision to step back from its ultra-loose policies partly reversed the yen’s decline.

The weak yen, alongside escalating global energy prices, has pushed Japan’s inflation beyond the BOJ’s 2% target. Expectations for wage increases, which are crucial for fostering inflation, have also fueled this rising trend.