This week marked one of the longest government shutdowns in U.S. history, with little indication of when it might end. Lawmakers are anticipating it could stretch even longer.
The question now is what, if anything, might motivate them to negotiate. There are several key dates coming up that could create pressure to act.
Here’s a rundown of significant upcoming dates that might prompt legislative action.
October 24: Next federal payroll deadline
Federal employees, whether they’re working or on furlough, are set to miss their first full paycheck on October 24, which could ramp up pressure on lawmakers significantly.
This month, federal workers only received partial paychecks, which has created financial strain for over two million federal employees and their families.
Some lawmakers, particularly from states with a high number of federal workers, are particularly concerned about this situation.
Senator Tim Kaine (D-Va.) noted, “That’s definitely a factor,” referencing a 2019 law that promises back pay, but added that, “That doesn’t mean it’s the same as actually getting a paycheck on time. People have bills to pay.”
Complicating matters, a memo from the White House Budget Office earlier this month suggested that federal workers might not be guaranteed back pay.
Air traffic controllers, who number over 10,000 and are on the job without pay, are particularly noteworthy. Past absences among controllers were significant enough to end a lengthy shutdown in 2019, raising concerns about their ability to manage air travel effectively during this crisis.
One controller shared with NewsNation that he’s driving for a delivery service to afford his daughter’s tuition during this shutdown.
The impacts of spending cuts could also ripple into local communities, affecting grocery stores, coffee shops, restaurants, and other businesses that depend on federal workers’ income.
In light of this, some lawmakers are attempting to alleviate the pressure. Senate Minority Leader John Thune (R-Wis.) indicated he intends to support a bill aimed at paying “excepted” employees who must continue working despite the funding lapse.
However, this bill wouldn’t assist furloughed workers and it remains uncertain if Democrats will support its passage or if the House will even convene to consider it.
October 31: Next military paycheck
This week, the Trump administration sidestepped one potential crisis by reallocating $8 billion in unused funds from fiscal year 2025 to cover salaries for 1.3 million active-duty military members, ensuring they received their pay on October 15.
Whether similar measures can be employed by Halloween, is yet to be seen.
Lawmakers are questioning if similar actions can be repeated, with some already focusing on that date.
House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) noted, “That won’t be available for the next paycheck in two weeks.”
Congress could choose to act, even though they opted not to before the recent military payday.
Thune’s proposed bill, aimed at paying excepted workers, would also cover military personnel.
“We’ll be exploring potential options. Next week brings the chance to pay military costs,” Thune remarked. “That will be our first opportunity, then we’ll see what follows.”
October 31 and November 5: Staff paydays
While staff salaries may seem less critical to lawmakers, they hold significance for those on the ground who are eagerly awaiting their next paycheck, with some potentially facing prolonged gaps in income.
Senate aides are notably the first affected, as they will miss their first full paycheck on the upcoming Monday, a window that lawmakers could have used to prevent this from happening.
Interestingly, the payment schedules differ between the two chambers. Senators earn their salaries twice monthly on the 5th and 20th, while House aides are paid once at the end of the month. Consequently, if House workers don’t receive their pay at the end of October, they’ll have to wait until after Thanksgiving.
There’s been some discussion about the House’s pay cycle, and a House Democratic aide expressed frustration, stating, “Rent should be due on the same day. No one else operates this way.”
November 1: Launch of ACA enrollment
This date is likely the most crucial one on this list.
The debate surrounding health care has significantly contributed to the ongoing shutdown, and Democrats intend to leverage this moment to advocate for enhanced Obamacare subsidies as the open enrollment period approaches.
Even though Republicans have claimed that these enhanced credits won’t be lost until year’s end, Democrats see the start of enrollment as a pivotal juncture.
If Congress fails to act, insurance premiums are predicted to rise sharply.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) remarked, “The American people are facing an unprecedented crisis regarding costs, yet we’re still at an impasse.”
State exchanges and insurers are already notifying enrollees about potential changes, which may complicate matters further.
Some Republicans believe that getting past November 1 could diminish Democrats’ negotiating power, but Democrats contend that the longer no action is taken, the more pressure will build on Republicans when Americans see their health care costs rising.
“The effects of rate hikes can’t be entirely avoided after November 1,” warned Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.).
November 21: Thanksgiving week
Although Thanksgiving is still more than a month away, the absence of a clear resolution suggests the shutdown might continue until late November.
This scenario is particularly problematic, with potential shortages of TSA personnel and air traffic control issues during one of the busiest travel periods of the year.
Lawmakers from both parties are wary of repeating the air travel chaos experienced earlier this year, which compelled action during a previous, lengthy shutdown.
These issues, paired with the possibility of air traffic controllers working without pay, could push legislators to reach an agreement before the substantial holiday travel begins.
Senate Commerce Committee Chairman Ted Cruz (R-Texas) expressed concern, saying, “One of the many fallout effects of Schumer’s shutdown is increased travel delays. If air traffic controllers and TSA have to work without pay over Thanksgiving, the public will suffer.”
Cruz added, “At some point, I believe at least some Democrats will see the light and we’ll find a resolution, but it’s hard to predict when.”
