In the 2020s, the rise of large-scale language modeling technology has led to an unprecedented acceleration in the sophistication of artificial intelligence. These machines can perform a wide range of tasks once thought only humans could solve. For example, you can write stories, create art from text descriptions, and solve complex tasks and problems that you are not trained to handle.
We asked six AI experts: James Pross, Roon, Robin Hanson, Nicklas Blanchard, Max Anton Brewer, and Anton Troinikov two questions. -Editor.
1. In what year do you predict with 50% confidence that machines will have general artificial intelligence? That is, they will be as good as or better than most humans in all areas of learning, reasoning, or intelligence? When does it exceed?
2. What changes will occur in society within 5 years of the outbreak?
max anton brewer
AGI is just around the corner. It will arrive by 2025. And it will be like contacting extraterrestrial life. According to this definition, artificial general intelligence will be achieved by 2025. I base this estimate on a unique prediction of my own design called “Squinting to the Metaculus.”
Metaculus is a collective prediction site where people bet against each other to predict future events. Aggregated forecasts are more accurate than any individual forecaster could make, with an average Brier score, a measure of forecast accuracy, of 0.105. Very good!
The current community prediction for this type of digital-only general purpose AI is 2028, but it is consistently on the decline. If we extrapolate, the trend line will reach 2025 by 2025.
Of course, it would be foolish to expect trends to continue moving in a straight line. However, advances in AI show no signs of slowing down, in fact, they are accelerating. I think the general public, even the average Metaculus user, is less aware of AI than I am. Therefore, their predictions will be too conservative.
It's actually a shame to know this because there's little we can do about it. This will change the world for better or worse. Many people feel that this gives them a sense of hopelessness.
It is difficult to predict how fundamentally AI will change society. It's going to get weirder and faster than anyone can imagine. It's easy to predict how people will react. Many people will think this is the end times, like so many things right now. The world is changing faster than anyone can understand, and AI research is an even more inexplicable hyper-object.
When this intelligence is made available to the public, it will attract significant industrial and societal attention. People will anthropomorphize it, demonize it, worship it. They will mess it up. They will shoot it with guns.
People will build bodies for AI connected to sensors and actuators. I already have it. AI is everywhere, behind every camera on every phone in the world. These will be replaced with generic AI as soon as it is worth the cost. they watch over us.
And unlike humans, digital humans can exchange and share memories. You can clone yourself and run it in parallel. You can work with your own code, your own datasets, and your own architecture. They can inhabit virtual space, as her NPCs in the game already do. We welcome them into our world and visit their world. But moving atoms is harder than moving bits, and it will take time for robotics to reach the bend of a hockey stick.
Politics will be realigned around this new axis, just as it would be if we made contact with aliens.
Religious believers and social justice activists will unite with new age QAnon types to fight the satanic/imperialist/oppressive/new world order digital people. Without regulation or technological means, some people may turn to terrorism. Religions will be forced to make statements about whether AI has a soul.
Billionaires and dictators, furry and art pirates, gamers and makers will put aside their differences to build a metaverse and populate it with digital people. Many of them never return, becoming permanently confused or chronically trapped in VR. People's realities diverge as they experience an endless stream of personalized entertainment.
Businesses and governments will try to regulate digital talent, but before they fail and start adapting. Most people, whether officially envisaged or not, will use AI as an oracle or analyst in their work.
Within five years of the invention of human-level AI, the world will be running on spreadsheet cells that look like this:
=AI(“Predict and answer the best questions to ask about the data above. Think step by step.”)
Everyone knows that. But we're going to pretend it's not and get on with it anyway. We will survive the apocalypse. At least long enough to see the next one.
