With President Biden stepping down from his reelection campaign and Vice President Harris securing the nomination, Democrats have new hope.
But the path to victory in November remains tough.
An average of national polls managed by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) gives former President Trump a 2-point lead over Harris.
But the situation is very fluid: These figures include polls both before and after Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris.
It’s largely unclear whether this dramatic shift has changed the race.
Democratic strategist David Axelrod warned Tuesday that Trump has a “significant advantage” over Harris.
James Carville, another prominent Democratic strategist, said Wednesday that Harris is off to a good start and people are feeling good about herself, but “that excitement has to be tempered with reality, and the reality is that Harris is going to be fighting a tough race.”
The election will likely come down to six battleground states.
This is the current situation.
Arizona
In Arizona, The Hill/DDHQ average has Trump leading Harris by 7.2 points, slightly larger than the lead he had over Biden, though all of the polls were conducted before Trump left office.
Arizona has the lowest percentage of black voters among battleground states, potentially making it difficult for Harris to win: Just 5.7% of Arizona’s population is black, according to the US Census Bureau.
Harris, of Jamaican and Indian descent, would be the first black woman to serve as president if elected.
Arizona was one of Biden’s narrowest victories in 2020, winning by less than half a percentage point.
Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) is reportedly on the shortlist to be Harris’ running mate, which could change the dynamics of the state, but as things stand, Arizona doesn’t seem like a strong candidate for the vice presidential spot.
Georgia
The Hill/DDHQ average, which includes polls taken before Biden decided to drop out, shows Trump leading Harris by 4.6 points in Georgia, compared with Trump’s 3.7 point lead over Biden.
The only poll released since Biden’s shock announcement showed a close race: A Landmark Communications survey gave Trump a slim one-point lead.
Georgia has a higher percentage of black people than any other battleground state: roughly one in three Georgians is black.
But it’s important to emphasize that while some surveys have shown Harris to be rated slightly better than Biden among black voters, the differences are fairly small.
For example, a Quinnipiac University poll released Monday found Harris had the support of 81 percent of black voters, while Biden had the support of 76 percent of black voters.
Michigan
Trump leads Harris by 2.2 points in the Wolverine State, exactly the same margin as Biden.
But no major polls have been conducted in Michigan since Harris effectively clinched the nomination.
Israel’s attacks on Gaza are a particularly salient issue in Michigan, which has the highest Arab-American population of any state, and in the February Democratic primary, the “independent” option garnered 13 percent support, widely seen as a protest vote against Biden’s strong pro-Israel stance.
Harris is generally seen as being slightly more sympathetic to the Palestinian issue than Biden, and caused a stir within the Democratic Party in March when she called for a temporary ceasefire ahead of Biden.
That said, it’s not at all clear that Harris’ policy on Israel and Gaza will be fundamentally different from Biden’s.
The vice president did not attend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday, with her aides noting that she already had plans in Indiana.
Nevada
The DDHQ polling average gives Trump a lead of more than eight points over Harris, but no notable polls have emerged in the Silver State since Harris became the de facto nominee.
About 30 percent of Nevada’s population is Latino, which perhaps gives Harris some hope.
Jen O’Malley Dillon, the Harris campaign’s campaign chair who served in the same role for the Biden campaign, argued in a memo on Wednesday:
“Harris is more popular than Trump among undecided, independents and third-party Hispanics. Early polling in Nevada has found the vice president regaining support among Hispanic voters and doing ‘very well’ among Hispanic voters who are skeptical of both Biden and Trump.”
The latter claim is based on the results of a poll that showed Harris “won back some Latino voters who had moved away from Biden.”
The idea will now be put to the test.
Pennsylvania
It’s the largest of the battleground states, with 19 electoral votes at stake, and Trump, like Biden, holds a roughly 4-point lead over Harris.
Harris isn’t outperforming Biden everywhere, but her team will be hoping that will change after the intense and mostly positive attention she’s received recently.
The Harris campaign also hopes that the vice president’s strong support for reproductive rights will translate to female voters in the Philadelphia suburbs, which have long been key battlegrounds in the state.
Harris could also boost black voter turnout in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
Importantly, Pennsylvania has a higher percentage of college graduates than the other five battleground states, and there is evidence that Harris has a slight advantage over Biden among these voters.
Wisconsin
The Milwaukee area was Ms. Harris’ first major campaign stop since Mr. Biden dropped out, and the city will be crucial to her hopes of retaining a state that Mr. Biden won in 2020 by just 0.6 percentage points.
Polls show Wisconsin to be one of the closest battlegrounds.
The Hill/DDHQ average has Trump leading Harris in the state by less than 2 points, essentially the same margin he holds over Biden.
The optimistic view for Harris is that her age will work to her advantage with younger voters in Wisconsin’s college towns, while her potential to break down barriers will excite liberal-leaning and black voters.
As in Pennsylvania and Michigan, the danger for her is that conservative-leaning independents will be hesitant to support her.
