I find New York City politics somewhat intriguing, much like I do with British or Canadian politics. The events in these places affect real lives, especially for those connected to the U.S. And, maybe… there’s a lesson buried in the happenings of American politics too.
So tonight, while I’ll be tuning into the developments in New York, my main interest lies elsewhere, even though I’m here, right in the heart of the city.
What’s really pressing for me is gauging how voters are feeling a year into what some call MAGA 2.0, along with the trends for the upcoming midterm elections next year. With that said, there are a couple of key areas I’ll be keeping an eye on for insights tonight.
Virginia: South by Southwest
The big story in Virginia is the possible division between Democrat gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger and her party’s candidate for state attorney general, Jay Jones. If Spanberger secures a solid win, as some polls suggest, while Jones loses to incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares, it could highlight that voters are open to splitting their choices even in a highly partisan landscape. We’ve seen this happen before, both in 2020 and 2024. I suppose the main takeaway is that candidate quality still matters, which, I imagine, isn’t exactly groundbreaking news.
However, Virginia might offer some insights into what could happen in 2026 and the dynamics of party alliances.
If you’re curious about who might take home wins in this year’s gubernatorial and attorney general races, you can look at five key areas outside Washington, D.C.: Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William counties, Henrico County near Richmond, and Virginia Beach.
Most of these regions lean Democratic, but Virginia Beach is a notable exception as it’s the only area that Gov. Glenn Youngkin won four years ago. Collectively, these places have a significant voter base, meaning Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears can’t afford to fall behind. Even if she or Miyares are below a third of the vote in Fairfax or below 40% in the other counties, their impact in the more sparsely populated red areas may be negligible.
But those red counties are what really paint the picture for 2026, which is why state elections are in the spotlight. If the new MAGA coalition holds strong, it’ll be due to the low-propensity working-class voters that Trump brought into the Republican base, who would likely vote even in his absence on the ballot.
I’m particularly interested in House District 34 in Harrisonburg and nearby districts like 41 and 49, which are all places Trump secured last year. Republicans won these areas in 2023 and should (one would think) maintain that streak this year. If there’s a loss here, or if it’s a nail-biter, it could point to a lingering turnout issue for Republicans during non-presidential years.
New Jersey: Inner Circle
The shifts in New Jersey from 2020 to 2024 were quite striking. Similar to New York, this state has seen a sharp rightward turn rather than a gradual shift typical of swing states. Kamala Harris won with less than a six-point margin — the closest in New Jersey since 1992 and significantly worse than Biden’s 2020 performance.
So, is this just a one-off, or is it the start of something larger? Trump flipped five counties from 2020 to 2024 and made robust gains in others, especially around New York and Philadelphia. It’s not fair to compare his performance in these areas with that of Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli, as the voter demographics differ greatly. However, I think it’s insightful to compare Ciattarelli’s performance from four years back.
Take a look at Passaic, Bergen, Essex, and Hudson counties in the New York metro area. Ciattarelli performed reasonably well here in 2021 — he lost Bergen by 5.6 points and Passaic by 3.7 points, both considerably better than the 2017 Republican candidate who fell short by over 20 points in Passaic and 15 points in Bergen. His slight improvement might give Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill some pause.
Yet, Essex and Hudson counties provide even clearer insights into New Jersey’s political future and the evolving MAGA coalition. Four years ago, Ciattarelli garnered about a quarter of the vote in these counties — not ideal, but an improvement over the 2017 Republican, who couldn’t even hit 20%.
These counties have more urban characteristics and diverse demographics. A significant number of nonwhite voters have shown increased interest in the Republican Party since Trump’s 2024 victory, which is understandable. Trump improved his standing by 18 points in Hudson County and 11 in Essex County.
If the new working-class Republican Party is here to stay, we should see some reflection in Ciattarelli’s performance in these areas. If substantial changes are indeed occurring, he should be able to hold onto around a quarter of the vote compared to 2021, even without attracting new supporters. It might not reach Trump-level growth, but it would signal a measurable shift from four years ago.
There are plenty of interesting indicators to watch tonight, especially in New Jersey and Virginia.
