This week seemed like an appropriate week to mention the many Hall of Famers currently roaming Major League fields.
Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Mike Trout, and Justin Verlander are all players who have a chance to get 100 percent of the vote when the day comes (as does Miguel Cabrera, who retired after last season).
There will be debate as to whether Zack Greinke and Joey Votto will get the required 75 percent of the vote, but I predict they will earn admission to Cooperstown.
Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado are on the verge of having careers as two-way third basemen who are better than Scott Rolen and perhaps on par with Adrian Beltre. And Lauren and Beltran have been elected to the Hall of Fame the past two years. Paul Goldschmidt looks a lot like Jeff Bagwell. Freddie Freeman is siding with newly elected Todd Helton, and it's even better because Freeman is doing this at sea level.
Mookie Betts is a supersized version of Carlos Beltran, and I think he'll be there eventually, but if he does, Jose Altuve, his teammate in the 2017 Astros scandal, will also be a lot easier to dance with. .
Remember 10 years ago when we debated whether Trout or Bryce Harper had the better career? Trout would end up having a better career, but Harper I think you'll have the career you want between these two (unless you absolutely want to have an October moment).
There are many other players, especially those who have yet to reach the required 10 years of service for consideration, such as Shohei Ohtani. I always think of Don Mattingly, Dwight Gooden, Darryl Strawberry, players who seem to be on a certain trajectory at a given moment but never get to where they originally expected. I am cautioned that this is a possibility.
With this in mind, let's take a look at five case studies centered around New York.
pete alonso
Of the players listed here, he will have the most difficult path for the following reasons:
His career did not begin until he was 24 years old. He set the MLB rookie home run record in 2019 and should finish this season among the top three home run hitters in Mets history (with a chance of finishing second), but he hit 192 home runs over his 28-year-old season. He just tied for 68th place on the all-time list.
Lauren is one of the players with 192 home runs by the age of 28, but at a time when wins above replacement (an attempt to evaluate a player's contribution) was the mainstream metric, Lauren was an elite two-way player. was. People who have joined the voting ranks in the last 10 years. And even though Alonso has hit 15 more home runs than any other player since entering the majors, he ranks only 29th in WAR (Baseball Reference), between Willie Adames and Tommy Edman.
So Alonso's Hall candidates have echoes of, say, Ryan Howard and Mo Bourne. They're sluggers who didn't play full-time until their mid-20s, and although they had their peaks (they both won MVP), they faded due to age, injury, and lack of players. Exercise capacity. Neither received the 5 percent needed to remain on the ballot in their first year of Hall eligibility.
Alonso is durable (as was Howard until he was 31). He is working hard on his defense and building his body. He needs to play five more seasons to qualify for the Hall. And to have a chance in Cooperstown, he'll need one, or perhaps a combination of them: 1. Voters care less about batting average than ever before. Still, Alonso's batting average of .217 last season must be extraordinary. He needs to get into the more familiar .260 range. 2. He will hit 500 home runs. 3. He has won his MVP or at least finished inside the top five several times (his best finish to date is his 7th place). 4. He has a big moment in the postseason.
gerrit cole
If his career ended today, Cole would have one Cy Young Award, two seconds, one quarter, one fifth, and a 2.93 ERA in 17 postseason starts. Do I have a chance of being selected? He would certainly get the vote, if not perhaps 75 percent.
Cole has had a career similar to Scherzer's, with durability and high-level excellence that should make life easier if he lasts, say, three more seasons.
And let's think about how the way we counted numbers changed during this period. Verlander, Grienke, Kershaw and Scherzer all have over 200 wins (Adam Wainwright retired at season's end with just 200 wins). Cole's 145 pitches are the next most among active players. If he gets to his 200 pitches, forget about 300 pitches. It's going to take a very long time for the next pitcher to get there.
There are 10 active pitchers with 100 wins or more, but the chances of them reaching 200 wins are almost zero due to age – Johnny Cueto, Lance Lynn, Charlie Morton, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Wade Kluber. Miley, Carlos Carrasco, Kyle Gibson, Yu Darvish and Dallas Keuchel. The most wins by a pitcher under the age of 30 last season was Aaron Nola with 90 wins.
Mr. Cole's population of more than 200 may feel like 300 by election time.
aaron judge
Alonso has an age problem as he was 25 in his first full season.here comes something huge but:Although he has hit more than 23 home runs than anyone since 2017, Judge was second in WAR to Betts at the time, and also briefly held the rookie home run record, and in the iconic 2022 season. He definitely holds the American League home run record and has won the MVP as well. 2nd place finish and 4th place.
If his career were to end today, he would make a compelling case. Three more high-level seasons should be a big step forward for Cooperstown, but injury concerns have loomed over his career. His blemish was in the postseason, when he hit just .211 while striking out in a third of his at-bats. October (or his sophomore year) will be the finishing touches for Hall.
Francisco Lindor
His career numbers make him look like a clone of Jose Ramirez, a player he coveted to share the left side of Cleveland's infield. Lindor: 1,223 games; 5,427 at-bats. 787 runs. 1,323 hits. 215 home runs. Comparison with Ramirez: 1,293 games. 5,404 at-bats. 784 runs. 1,327 hits. 216 home runs.
That makes Ramirez a shy third baseman compared to Arenado and Machado (although his trajectory is good). But as a shortstop, consider Lindor's 42.7 WAR through his age-29 season compared to Jeter's 40.4 WAR (which remained the same through Ramirez's age-29 season).
The player who reminds me most of Lindor is Beltran. He's a switch-hitter, a middle-of-the-diamond player with a wide range of high-level skills. Beltran has big moments in the postseason, which will help Lindor — he has two Gold Gloves and five top-nine MVP finishes, including three ninth-place finishes. , no one is in the top four.
Juan Soto
Baseball Reference has categories that determine which batter a player is statistically most similar to. The judge's No. 1 comparison is Soto. But here's the problem. Judge is entering his age-32 season, and Soto will be entering his age-25 season, building on what he has accumulated over the years.
Judge has played in just 835 games, so given his age and injury history, there's still a chance his career could end up taking him away from Cooperstown. Soto played in 779 games and had 3,375 at-bats, the 16th most all-time through his age-24 season. And just to give you a little idea of his trajectory, his 157 OPS Plus ranks 13th between Rogers Hornsby (158) and Willie Mays (155) through age 24. His 160 home runs are tied for 9th-24th with Albert Pujols, between Frank Robinson and Orlando Cepeda.
Soto, who still needs to play four seasons to be Hall eligible, has finished second, fifth, sixth and ninth in MVP voting, and tied for 2018 National League Rookie of the Year honors. He finished second behind Ronald Acuña Jr. hall passage.
Acuña joins Trout and Alex Rodriguez as the only players to hit 150 home runs and steal 150 bases in an age-25 season. Julio Rodriguez, who is entering his age 23 season, has a chance to join the mix over the next few years. It was another reminder that many players are steadily building interesting hole cases across MLB.
