CLEVELAND — If you want to believe Carlos Rodon will throw a gem in a big spot for the Yankees, there's statistical support.
If you want to believe that Rodon will get beat up by the Guardian sometime around Saturday, there's some statistical support for that argument as well.
So, which Rodon will appear in Game 5 of the ALCS?
Is he a player with a rich track record of pitching well in progressive fields?
Or someone who wasn't effective on the road this season?
Manager Aaron Boone expects Rodon to perform like the ace he showed at home in Game 1.
“I feel great about where he is right now and what he brings to the table,” Boone said before the Yankees' thrilling 8-6 win over the Guardians on Friday night. .
Primarily as a member of the rival White Sox, Rodon pitched 76 innings in 13 career games with Cleveland, posting a 3.08 ERA.
One of the keys to their success against the Guardians was holding Jose Ramirez to a .217 average, five extra-base hits (no home runs) and five RBIs in 46 at-bats, regardless of location.
“It’s one of those things as a player that sometimes you show up in certain spots and make good pitches,” Rodon said. “Out of 30 ballparks, you'll probably find one where I don't pitch well, and fortunately, I pitch well here. [Saturday] It’s going to be a pretty big game.”
Rodon did not pitch at Progressive Field during the regular season. If so, perhaps his home road performance might not have been as dramatic as his 3.11 ERA at Yankee Stadium and 4.69 ERA away from his home ballpark.
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He allowed a similar number of home runs, walks, and strikeouts, but allowed far more hits along the way.
“I wasn't really concerned about that,” Rodon said. “I don't know. I can't tell you why.”
Rodon believes, “What have you done for me lately?” is the most important element. And he opened the ALCS with nine strikeouts and no walks, allowing just a solo home run.
“I was conscious of where I was emotionally,” Rodon said. “And as far as focus…I'm always very focused on the job at hand when I'm on the mound, but I kept it very simple. I stayed within myself and focused on what was in front of me. I thought I was just controlling things, and I somehow brushed off everything that was behind me and that I couldn't control.”
The Yankees have several young players who will make their playoff debuts in 2024, but Boone believes the 31-year-old left-hander with postseason experience could be the beneficiary of any concerns.
Rodon lost command in the fourth inning of his ALDS start.
“Obviously, he's been pitching in the league for a long time, he's had a lot of success, he's been through a lot with us. He struggled last year, but he bounced back this year,” Boone said. “I think he, like anybody, feels like he really got a lot out of the experience of pitching in the postseason with the Yankees.”
