With Week 9 complete, the NFL season has reached its midpoint. It’s a natural time to ask how many teams have a real shot at winning the Super Bowl. The answer isn’t all 32, and I’m not convinced it’s even 10.
Let’s begin with the teams I see as genuine contenders, then work down to those with little hope of making a serious run.
For now, I’d pick Buffalo. The Bills are averaging 32 points a game, and four of their remaining nine matchups are against the Jets and Dolphins, who have combined for just three wins. Buffalo also has the AFC’s top seed at the moment, which puts it in a strong position.
Josh Allen has reached the AFC Championship Game twice, both times in Kansas City. If the Bills hold on to the No. 1 seed, they’ll get a first-round bye and would need just two home wins to reach the Super Bowl. I’d be comfortable backing Allen to get those wins in Buffalo.
After Week 4, I called San Francisco the league’s best team, and I still like the 49ers to come out of the NFC. They’ve dealt with injuries to Ricky Pearsall, Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel, while Christian Kirk has landed on injured reserve. Even so, Brock Purdy has completed 69% of his passes, with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions.
San Francisco has now added Keenan Allen, too. If Evans and Samuel return to full health, this offense could be awfully difficult to stop in January.
The moment that gave me pause about Kansas City’s chances was Patrick Mahomes hurting his arm against the Jets. He returned on the following possession, and the Chiefs eventually won by 23. Kansas City has given up only 143 points in eight games, so the defense can keep things manageable when the offense takes time to get going. If Mahomes is healthy in January and has the ball with a chance to end your season, would you really feel confident?
At the halfway point, Joe Burrow is my MVP. He’s led Cincinnati back from 13-point deficits in consecutive games, including an overtime victory over Tennessee. It’s impressive, but the Bengals can’t keep asking him to dig them out of holes. Falling behind the Titans is one thing; doing that in Buffalo in January would be another.
Cincinnati’s defense held Atlanta to 17 points in Spain. If it can deliver performances like that more consistently, Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have the firepower to win it all.
I wrote off Green Bay after its narrow Week 4 win over Tampa Bay. That looks premature. The Packers are 5-1 since losing to Atlanta, with their only defeat coming in a game I thought they should have won in Detroit. They followed that by scoring 45 points against New England and intercepting Drake Maye three times. If both sides of the ball keep playing at that level, Green Bay can win the NFC. The games against Minnesota and the Rams should give us a better idea—and may yet change my mind again.
Of the teams in this group, the Rams are the ones I’d be least surprised to see miss the playoffs. Three weeks ago, they were 2-4, and Arizona spent much of the afternoon putting pressure on Matthew Stafford. Los Angeles has since won three straight, and Myles Garrett is back.
Sean McVay needs to get the team into the postseason while Puka Nacua and Davante Adams recover. The offensive line remains a concern. Still, if both receivers are healthy in January and the Rams can protect Stafford, the division winner that draws them in the first round could have a difficult afternoon.
Ben Johnson has won games with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent, so I trust his coaching. Caleb Williams is both the reason I can imagine Chicago winning the Super Bowl and the reason I’m keeping the Bears below the top contenders. Against Tampa Bay, he threw two touchdowns on his first 16 attempts, then tossed four interceptions on his next 16. Williams has exceptional physical tools—he may be among the most talented players in the league—but turnovers matter more in the playoffs. He still makes too many mistakes for me to put Chicago in the same class as the teams above.
Trevor Lawrence is playing some of the best football of his career, and Jacksonville has outscored opponents by 108 points. I understand why some people are more bullish on the Jaguars than I am. But they committed 13 penalties while nearly giving away a win in Cincinnati, then allowed C.J. Stroud to throw for 312 yards and three touchdowns in London. Jacksonville could win its division and a home playoff game. The AFC’s top teams look stronger to me, though, and I’d put the Jaguars just below Buffalo, Cincinnati and Kansas City.
Seattle was in my Super Bowl conversation when it faced San Francisco in Week 5. The defense that held Kansas City to three points is still a reason to keep the Seahawks in the mix. But Seattle gave up 34 points to Chicago the following week, and shutting down Gardner Minshew and Arizona didn’t tell me much. I’m more curious to see how the defending champions look when they meet the 49ers again on Nov. 29.
Detroit has won four in a row, and I trust Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs to put points on the board against almost anyone. My hesitation is the defense. The Lions’ best result was holding Jordan Love and Green Bay to 17 points, though the Packers also missed a 35-yard field goal late that would have put them ahead.
The other three wins came against teams led by Jacoby Brissett, Kyler Murray and Malik Willis. I’ll have a better sense of Detroit’s January prospects if its defense can hold up against Caleb Williams and Chicago on Thanksgiving.
Seven wins and a plus-12 point differential seem about right for Denver. The Broncos nearly lost to the winless Chargers and benefited from some questionable calls against Carolina, a game they still needed Nik Bonitto’s strip-sack to put away. It wasn’t the first time this season that Denver seemed to get help from the officials. Regular readers know I’m not sold on Sean Payton or Bo Nix—especially Payton, who I think is one of the most overrated coaches in the league.
Kevin O’Connell is one of the NFL’s better coaches, and he deserves credit for getting Minnesota to 6-2. Still, I wondered how much to make of the Vikings’ 5-0 start when their previous three opponents had a combined 2-13 record. Then Minnesota managed just six points against Buffalo on Monday night. O’Connell can scheme his way to plenty of wins, but I’m not sure the quarterback play is strong enough to carry the Vikings through a tough NFC, even after their trade for Kirk Cousins.
I questioned whether Drake Maye might be a one-hit wonder. Then he went into Buffalo and won, before accounting for five touchdowns against the Raiders. New England has already beaten my top team on the road, so I’ve seen what the Patriots can do at their best. I’ve also seen Maye throw three interceptions against Green Bay. I need to see more of the Buffalo version before I believe the Patriots can get back to the Super Bowl.
I thought Aaron Rodgers was finished, but he answered with nine touchdown passes over three games. Pittsburgh has beaten Cincinnati, and I can imagine Rodgers winning a home playoff game at 43. The harder scenario is a shootout against Burrow followed by a road game against Josh Allen or Mahomes. I don’t see the Steelers making a run all the way to February.
John Harbaugh has kept the Giants in first place despite losing Jaxson Dart and having to change quarterbacks. That’s good work. The potential downside is a home playoff game against a wild-card team from the NFC North or West—one that may be considerably better than New York.
Five wins are more than I expected after watching Deshaun Watson in the first three weeks of the season. The Browns have managed to win despite poor quarterback play, not because their passers have been doing the job. Sooner or later, that’s likely to cost them more games.
I gave Jesse Minter some early Coach of the Year credit after he took Tyler Huntley to Atlanta and won. That was four losses ago. With Lamar Jackson expected to miss six to nine weeks, Baltimore’s season looks close to over.
I expected the Raiders to be more competitive than many people thought, and they held their own against Kansas City and Buffalo. But after opening 3-0, they’ve gone 1-5, and San Francisco just beat them by three touchdowns. Las Vegas also appears to have shifted its focus toward the future, trading Kirk Cousins and handing the offense to first overall pick Fernando Mendoza. I’m interested to see what he can do, but this doesn’t look like a team ready to contend now.
Every year, it seems, there’s talk that Dallas is finally going to make a run. Once again, that hasn’t happened. The Cowboys piled up 153 penalty yards and needed a touchdown in the final minute to beat Indianapolis. The NFC East is still within reach, though that says as much about the division as it does about Dallas. Even if the Cowboys get into the playoffs, I don’t see a Super Bowl run.
Houston has won three of its last four after beginning the season 0-4. Stroud threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns in an impressive win over Jacksonville in London. The next week, the Texans lost at home to the Giants in overtime. They’ve made a deep hole for themselves, and while they may be one of the better teams in this group, the inconsistency makes it hard to call them contenders.
Carolina’s spot just below Houston is interesting. After their rookie seasons, plenty of people viewed Stroud as a future star and Bryce Young as a bust. The truth seems less dramatic: both are capable starters, but neither has been spectacular. I’m more impressed by Young. After a rough start that could have derailed his career, he showed real resilience and fought his way back. The Panthers simply don’t have enough talent around him right now.
Tyler Shough and Chris Olave have made New Orleans more entertaining than I expected. Shough threw for 410 yards and nearly beat Detroit before the Saints failed on a two-point try, then helped them beat Baltimore the following week. There’s something to build on, and the NFC South gives New Orleans a chance to make the season interesting. Still, like the NFC East winner, the team that takes this division could be out after one playoff game.
Tampa Bay did well to get back into the division race after starting 0-4. Then the Buccaneers intercepted Caleb Williams four times, managed only three points from those turnovers and lost. It felt like a snapshot of the NFC South as a whole: a group of teams that aren’t especially strong and can still lose even when things seem to go their way.
Atlanta remains in the division hunt, as do the other NFC South teams. The concern is that the Falcons haven’t played well, and their next three opponents are Kansas City, Minnesota and Detroit. They need to work out whether Michael Penix is their long-term answer. If he isn’t, they should start considering their options in the 2027 draft.
I still believe in Jayden Daniels, but Washington’s overtime game against the Giants was troubling. The Commanders reached field-goal range and let the clock run out without attempting a kick. Dan Quinn seems well-liked by his players, but I’m not convinced he’s a good enough head coach. Daniels needs a young offensive coach who can bring out everything he has.
Arizona (3-6), Indianapolis (2-7), the New York Jets (2-7), Philadelphia (2-7), Miami (1-7), Tennessee (1-7) and the Los Angeles Chargers (0-8) are the teams I see as having little chance to contend.
If you support one of those teams, you may want to get comfortable with mock drafts. I talked myself into the Jets back in September, which didn’t age well, and Arizona can still pull off an upset now and then.
Tennessee’s only win came against Indianapolis. Philadelphia has lost seven straight, Miami supporters have been thinking about April since September, and the Chargers have Justin Herbert but still haven’t won a game.
Several teams in this group could spend the offseason searching for a head coach, a quarterback, or both. I wouldn’t be shocked if some of their fans are already reading draft projections again by next November.
