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Wall Street’s collective intelligence is often much smarter than any single analyst, pundit, or pollster, and that collective intelligence appears to depend on The Donald. Trump wins this November. A clear pattern has emerged between stock returns and presidential polls, with American companies clearly supporting Mr. Trump.
Billionaire hedge fund manager Scott Bessent said in a recent letter to investors that when President Trump is leading in the polls, stock prices are lower than when President Biden is leading. He pointed out that the rate of return is 10 times better.
He explains that he’s bullish on the market for the same reason that the market as a whole is bullish. Trump appears poised to win both the Republican nomination and the White House.
Trump appears poised to win both the Republican nomination and the White House. (Getty Images/Photo Illustration/FOX News)
Stock returns have been lackluster over the past 14 months, when Biden was leading in polls, averaging 3.4% annually. Conversely, when President Trump was in charge, stocks returned an average of 35.2% annually.
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Mr. Bessent makes a persuasive argument to Key Square Capital Management investors based not on politics but on the clear policy differences between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden.
Some of the tax cuts signed into law by President Trump are set to expire in 2025, but Biden plans to repeal some, if not all, of those tax reforms and then raise taxes even further. I have repeatedly insisted. President Trump, on the other hand, wants to extend the tax cuts to a minimum and wants to cut them further.
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On the regulatory front, Mr. Biden has signaled a heavy-handed approach that costs the average American household thousands of dollars a year. In contrast, Mr. Trump focused on eliminating burdensome, ineffective, and costly regulations that would reduce costs for American households.
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The Biden administration has also been far more willing to use antitrust laws as a political bludgeon rather than as a surgical tool to protect consumers. This marks another departure from more cautious Trump-era policies.
The difference in outcomes between the two regimes is equally striking on the international stage. For all of Trump’s rantings and hyperbolic accusations, especially against his adversaries, foreign villains remained in check during his term. The media fueled fears that President Trump would start World War III, but nothing of the sort happened.
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Russia invaded Ukraine under Trump’s predecessor and successor, but not while Trump was in office. Nothing similar to the October 7 terrorist attack in Israel occurred.
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From a business perspective, President Trump’s policies are clearly the favorite. He created a tax and regulatory environment that allows U.S. companies to hire more workers and pay higher wages while reducing price increases and increasing profits. .
This was a tailwind for stocks, as the expected earnings of these companies continued to rise.
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Trump also has less uncertainty than Biden. This is important because there’s nothing businesses hate more than uncertainty. Investment grew faster under the Trump administration because consistent application of antitrust laws and a stable international arena reduced the unknowns facing businesses.
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JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon He recently expressed similar sentiments, saying he didn’t like President Trump’s comments, but said he believed Trump was right on important policy issues and that the economy was strong because American businesses were thriving. Ta. Dimon judged by results, not rhetoric.
Similarly, Bessent emphasized that his analysis is from an investment perspective, not his personal political views. Rather, it is about what policies can enable American companies to prosper and ultimately generate higher profits, increasing stock prices and returns to shareholders.
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The tacit support that Wall Street’s collective wisdom appears to be giving Trump reflects Main Street sentiment on the economy. It’s not difficult to understand why. During the three years of the Biden administration, average income, adjusted for inflation, fell by about 4.4%.
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In contrast, inflation-adjusted profits rose 2.6% in the first three years of Trump’s presidency, and rose even more in his final year.
Bessent’s analysis of stock returns and polling data shows Wall Street and Main Street are lining up behind the same candidates this year based on policy, not personality.
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