November means the college football regular season is nearly over. In two weeks, the final games will be played, followed by conference championship weekend and then Selection Sunday for the College Football Playoff.
The first few CFP rankings suggest this could be the season a three-loss team makes the 12-team field. That will become more common when the playoff expands to 24 teams next year, but it would be a first in the current format.
Among the teams ranked around 16th to 21st, five three-loss contenders stand out: Oregon, South Carolina, Ohio State, Ole Miss and LSU. More teams could join the mix, but for now these look like the strongest candidates.
Missouri was worth considering, though games against Georgia and Kentucky over the next two weeks make its path difficult. Even splitting those games might be a stretch, and the Tigers’ best win so far is against a struggling Florida team. A win over Georgia this Saturday would give them a much stronger case.
Ole Miss has an intriguing offense, led by quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy. The Rebels also own solid wins over LSU and Missouri. LSU is harder to make a case for: it lost to Ole Miss and, aside from an impressive season-opening win over Clemson, lacks a standout victory.
Still, LSU’s offense can be dangerous with Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr. calling plays, and the Tigers have one of the most expensive rosters in the sport. Both teams, though, have recent blowout losses to top conference opponents. LSU was overrun by Alabama in the fourth quarter, while Georgia dominated Ole Miss less than a week ago.
Georgia may be the country’s best team, which makes that defeat easier to explain. But Ole Miss also lost to Florida, struggling badly for much of the second half.
Ohio State and South Carolina are both dealing with major injury concerns. Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin is out for the rest of the regular season and possibly longer. The Buckeyes have looked different without him, and suffered their third loss at home to Oregon last Saturday.
South Carolina, meanwhile, has won four straight and has looked like one of the nation’s hottest teams. Coach Shane Beamer’s fortunes have changed quickly, and a win over Tennessee gives the Gamecocks a persuasive result. But the injuries to quarterback LaNorris Sellers and receiver Nyck Harbor complicate their outlook; it’s not clear when either will be back.
Of the five teams, Oregon looks like the most dangerous to me. The Ducks were uneven early in the season, but have improved since making a change at offensive coordinator in late October. They scored 41 points against a strong Ohio State defense last weekend and appear to be hitting their stride with Dylan Raiola at quarterback.
Oregon also has a manageable finish, with Michigan, a road game at Michigan State and Washington on the schedule. Its wins over Ohio State and likely Group of Six playoff contender Boise State help its résumé, too. The Ducks have found a way to cope with the loss of star quarterback Dante Moore, and many people picked them to win it all back in August. The talent is still there; it just took time to show up.
That doesn’t mean Oregon is certain to win the championship—or even make the playoff. But if the Ducks get into the field, their offense could be a difficult matchup for anyone. A three-loss team seems likely to earn one of the 12 spots this year, and if that team is Oregon, I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility of a deep run.
