Week 18 of the NFL season is underway, and the playoffs are approaching quickly. However, there are a few details that need to be sorted out first. While we have a good sense of most playoff contenders, there are still some teams at risk of dropping out and others vying for better seeding. I think it’s fair to say that while predicting what NFL coaches will do is tricky, we can get a pretty clear idea of which teams need victories, who’s really invested, and who might be indifferent.
Just a quick note: keep this post handy as we’ll be updating it as new developments arise.
A team fighting with all its might
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
The Falcons’ victory over the Rams in Week 17 has put the Buccaneers in a tight spot. If the Falcons beat the Saints this week, then even a Buccaneers win against the Panthers won’t help their playoff situation. Fortunately for fantasy players, Saturday’s game is critical for both teams. A Panthers win secures their division title and playoff spot. Conversely, if the Bucks win, the outcome of the Falcons vs. Saints game will determine the NFC South champion.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)
This matchup isn’t devoid of stakes. The winner will claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC, while the loser drops to the No. 5 seed. Expect a close contest, with both teams playing their starters to win.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The Steelers’ win over the Browns in Week 17 dashed their chance at clinching the AFC North. The Ravens, having secured a win against the Packers, will now face off where the stakes are high: the victor claims the No. 4 seed, while the other team’s playoff hopes vanish.
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The Chargers have opted to rest Justin Herbert. In contrast, the Broncos desperately need a win to secure the No. 1 seed, allowing for a bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs. There’s a slim chance the Jaguars and Patriots could lose yet the Broncos would still snag the top seed, but relying on that is, well, risky. They’ll need their starters until the game’s in hand.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The Dolphins have no playoff implications left to consider, while the Patriots are gunning for the No. 1, No. 2, or No. 3 seed in the AFC. They must win to lock in the top seed, needing the Broncos to lose against the Chargers. If the Broncos win, a Patriots victory over the Dolphins would earn them the No. 2 seed. Meanwhile, a loss could still see them clinch the No. 2 spot if the Jaguars falter. In fact, if both the Jaguars and Broncos lose and the Patriots win, they would position themselves as the No. 3 seed.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Titans have been out of the playoff race for some time now — a loss here would only aid their draft position. The Jaguars seem to be coming in hot and even have an outside chance for the No. 1 seed. Yet, with the Chargers starting Trey Lance instead of Herbert, and the Patriots facing a seemingly easy game against the Dolphins, their path gets trickier. Both need to lose for the Jaguars to clinch the top seed.
For the Jaguars to win the AFC South and aim for the No. 3 seed, they must beat the Titans. Should the Broncos or Patriots not perform well, they could also secure a spot in the No. 1 or No. 2 seeds. Conversely, a loss could drop them down to the seventh seed. So, they’re definitely in win-mode.
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Colts are out of the running, and rookie quarterback Riley Leonard will take the field instead of Philip Rivers. The Texans sit in an ambiguous position and could finish anywhere from No. 3 to No. 7 seed. With a Jaguars win, a loss would lock in the AFC South title for the Jaguars, leaving the Texans to battle for their seeding. These stakes should push them to strive for a win.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
A Bears win will clinch them the No. 2 seed, while a win paired with an Eagles loss could push them to No. 3. Coach Ben Johnson seems determined to go for a win despite a recent loss to the 49ers. A win here sets them up for a matchup against the Packers in the playoffs. For now, it looks like they’re playing to win, but I’ll keep this updated if anything changes.
To do so or not?
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The Eagles and Bears are both vying for the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Bears hold an advantage, as a win guarantees them that position, while the Eagles require both a win and a Bears loss. Coach Nick Sirianni hasn’t disclosed if any players will be rested. If the Eagles stumble or the Bears achieve victory, the No. 3 seed is pretty much locked in, but there’s still value in securing No. 2.
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The Jets, already out of playoff contention, are hoping for a loss to maintain or improve their current No. 3 draft position. Meanwhile, the Bills sit at No. 7 for the playoffs but can climb to No. 5 or No. 6 with a victory. They need the Texans and Chargers to lose to ascend higher. A win would improve their playoff chances, and we’re keeping an eye on whether Coach Sean McDermott will start his key players, especially since Josh Allen isn’t quite at his best. Personally, I’d rest him — beating the Jets shouldn’t be that hard, and trusting the Bills’ starters in fantasy feels risky right now.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Coach Sean McVay has indicated the starters will see action this week, but there may not be many available. Winning while the 49ers lose would land them the No. 5 seed; otherwise, they could end up as the No. 6 seed. I wouldn’t be surprised if McVay pulls the starters midway through the game. For now, it seems wise to avoid relying on Rams players for fantasy this week.
Team resting starting pitcher
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Manager Jim Harbaugh has announced that Trey Lance will start against the Broncos, potentially leading to other starters needing rest or limited practice. Even if the other starters perform well, Lance is in for a challenging matchup against the tough Broncos defense.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Packers have secured the No. 7 seed, which means they will likely rest their key players.
