(NEXSTAR) – Meteorologists say it’s too early to give an accurate forecast for the Christmas holiday. But in the meantime, we can look back in time for clues about who was able to see snow.
AccuWeather analyzed historical weather data from 1991 to 2020 to determine which parts of the country are most likely to see a snowy Christmas. In the 25 largest cities in the United States, the odds are pretty slim at best.
Based on historical data, Denver and Chicago have the highest odds of a white Christmas among large cities. AccuWeather gave both about a one-in-three chance.
Indianapolis and Boston follow with about a 1 in 4 chance of snow on Christmas, according to AccuWeather.
But the further north or higher the elevation, the better the odds. The group released a map showing the historical probability of snow across the country on the holiday. According to the map, the most likely locations are the far northern states and mountainous regions of the west.
This year, the National Weather Service expects La Niña to take hold in time for winter. Weather patterns can influence which parts of the country get more or less snow.
NOAA Meteorologist Tom Di Liberto said.We recently re-examined snowfall trends.He found that during La Niña winters, the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains tend to have “buck years” for snow. Di Liberto said La Niña patterns also tend to bring above-average snow to the Great Lakes region and parts of New England.
However, La Niña is expected to be weaker and shorter this year, and its impact on snowfall will likely be slightly different. In the north-central United States, more snow falls during a weak La Niña winter, while the Pacific Northwest receives less snow than in a strong La Niña winter.
AccuWeather will release a more detailed Christmas snow forecast in mid-December. Published by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center Temperature and precipitation forecast 6 to 10 days in advance.
