More than 100 people were killed and dozens injured in Russia’s worst terrorist attack in years.
Who is responsible for the attack?
The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack and praised the “Islamic fighters” who carried out the attack. Many commentators and US officials have pointed to an IS-affiliated group called Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) as the main suspect, but there is currently no evidence that this is the case.
ISKP is the Islamic State branch in Afghanistan. The name derives from the name given to the area by some local Islamic rulers, and while clearly rejecting modern national borders, it also refers to the lost glory and power of its members as an Islamic empire. It is reminiscent of.
The organization was formed at the peak of IS expansion in 2015, and the group, based in Iraq and Syria, has expanded by building a network of affiliates in the Middle East, Maghreb countries, West Asia and other parts of Africa. was. These efforts have had mixed results. But hundreds of disillusioned Taliban fighters and some Pakistani factions were drawn to IS’s extremism and resources. These formed the core of ISKP, and the group remains connected to IS to this day.
Has ISKP always attacked international targets of this kind?
No. That is why it is important that ISKP itself did not claim responsibility for the attack in Moscow. This is from his IS central communications channel and is not IS’s own.
ISKP has also focused primarily on local campaigns until relatively recently. It has launched hundreds of attacks in Afghanistan against both civilian targets and security forces, including Western forces. Two attacks targeted Kabul maternity ward and Kabul University in 2020. Some have attacked mosques and ethnic and religious minorities in Afghanistan.
The group was also responsible for a large-scale destructive attack on Kabul’s international airport in 2021, killing 13 U.S. soldiers and more than 150 civilians during the chaotic U.S. evacuation from the country. died. Although this was an international target, it was still within Afghanistan.
However, ISKP Do you want to attack international targets now?
To some extent. The group attacked targets in Afghanistan’s neighbors Tajikistan and Pakistan, as well as Afghan hotels favored by the Chinese. Earlier this year, the United States intercepted communications and confirmed that the group carried out two bombings in Iran, killing nearly 100 people, although ISKP did not claim responsibility.
Earlier this month, the most senior US general in the Middle East said ISKP could attack US and Western interests outside of Afghanistan “with little or no warning, within as early as six months.” .
Why would ISKP launch this type of attack?
Over recent decades, many Islamic extremists have shifted their focus from purely local targets to international targets. The reasons vary by group. New leaders may bring personal agendas, or launch long-range international attacks to attract recruits, obtain new resources from sponsors, or mobilize supporters disillusioned with local failures. In some cases, it is considered a way to do so. They are also a way to distinguish one group from its competitors. ISKP, in the case of the Taliban, has always avoided such a strategy, but al-Qaeda is the pioneer of this strategy and has been locally focused since 2011.
It is also entirely possible that ISKP is acting on direct orders from IS leaders. Despite the collapse of the IS caliphate in Syria and Iraq, ties between ISKP and local leaders remain. In 2022, a UN report based on information from member states said that ISKP receives funds from the leadership “through trusted cash couriers” and there is no reason why orders should not also be sent.
IS appears to continue to seek opportunities for such attacks. A network planning to attack a concert hall in Brussels, recently disbanded by French and Belgian police, is reportedly at least inspired by IS.But this too Increased likelihood of another IS affiliate or faction was in charge, or even a semi-autonomous group inspired by IS.
Why ISKP and IS? Are the leaders targeting Russia at all?
Like many Islamic extremists, IS leaders are mindful of Russia’s support for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime, making Moscow part of a broader coalition of Christian and Western forces against Islam. I regard it as such. This is an important point made by IS propaganda from Pakistan to Nigeria.
In September 2022, ISKP militants claimed responsibility for a deadly suicide bombing at the Russian embassy in Kabul, and some experts believe that ISKP militants have been active in opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent years. It says that there are. Michael Kugelman of the Washington-based Wilson Center said ISKP “considers Russia to be complicit in periodic efforts to oppress Muslims,” and each group has their own grievances against Russia. The group said it counts among its members a large number of Central Asian extremists.
ISKP leaders also view Russia, along with China and others, as important to the Taliban’s continued control and may be seeking to weaken the group. An attack on Moscow would therefore combine regional and more global aims.
