History may or may not repeat itself, it may or may not happen again, but there is great danger in ignoring or dismissing events.
Sixty years ago this month, Congress recklessly and foolishly Gulf of Tonkin ResolutionIt passed the Senate with only two votes against, and gave President Lyndon B. Johnson the power to launch the Vietnam War, which the United States ultimately lost.
The incident was sparked by an alleged attack by North Vietnamese PT boats on two U.S. Navy destroyers patrolling the coast of North Vietnam in international waters. Two days earlier, North Vietnamese PT boats had attacked but not damaged the USS Maddox. Maddox and the USS Turner Joy were ordered to return to their patrol areas.
But a second attack never happened, as did the discovery of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction four decades later.
The question of why the US made such a grave miscalculation twice is less important than preventing similar disastrous decisions based on false or fabricated information. The killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran is one example of a potentially disastrous outcome for the wrong reasons.
Who killed the Hamas leaders? Israel is the prime suspect. Israel conducted decapitation operations to eliminate the Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, and killed the Lebanese Hezbollah leader who was allegedly plotting the attacks. Missile attack The incident that took the lives of 12 Druze children on the Golan Heights.
But unless Israel is completely cynical, why would it exclude Hamas’ chief negotiator when some kind of hostage settlement could be reached and the war in Gaza could end? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may not want to seek a ceasefire until Hamas is destroyed.
More importantly, if Haniyeh was assassinated by a bomb in his apartment, was this a Mossad plot?Unless the Iranian Revolutionary Guards security services were incompetent or complicit in the plot, it is inconceivable that these apartments would not have been routinely searched for bugs and bombs.
Who could have known in advance that Haniya would be staying in the apartment, and who detonated the bomb, as it is unlikely that it was set to explode at a specific time?
As of now, there is no answer.
The list of suspects could include dissidents within the Iranian regime, those wanting to sabotage negotiations over Gaza, and those wanting to stoke tensions against Israel or further isolate it. Tensions between Sunni Hamas and Shiite Hezbollah may also be a factor, as neither is a permanent ally.
In any case, there is no conclusive evidence or bomb that indicates that Israel or any other party was directly involved in the assassination, and the fact that Israel has not admitted responsibility does not lead to any particular conclusion.
But Tehran may have little choice but to retaliate as Johnson did 60 years ago. It is far from certain that such retaliation would have a Vietnam-like outcome, but it could end in a regional war that ends in defeat.
There is another reason to worry: What if the assassination was carried out to fabricate allegations against the United States and force it to retaliate, as a pretext for threatening or attacking American targets across the Middle East?
The goal is to embroil the United States in a Middle East conflict, strain American resources, and impose serious domestic unrest in a chaotic election. USS Cole-style suicide attackor something similar Beirut barracks explosion In 1983, both presidential candidates could compete to take stronger action.
Donald Trump may have an advantage. He is no longer in office and therefore has no responsibility, and can be as critical or indignant as possible about any action taken by the current administration. Joe Biden is still the president and commander in chief. Kamala Harris is the candidate. How will decisions be made in this case?
Under these circumstances, any attack on the United States could easily trigger an overreaction similar to Israel’s reaction to the vicious and brutal violence of October 7. Would there be a rush to judgment that would allow for a more rational assessment of what happened with Haniya’s murder, or with any attack on a U.S. target?
The events of 60 years ago and the authorization to use force in Iraq in 2002 should influence our thinking. Ready, fire, aim is not the answer.
Harlan UllmanHe holds a PhD and is a senior advisor to the Atlantic Council and lead author of “Shock and Awe” Military Doctrine. His 12th book is “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How a Massive Disruption Attack Became a Looming Existential Crisis for a Divided Nation and the Entire World.”
