The recent talks in Istanbul between Russia and Ukraine, often described as negotiations, ultimately proved to be unproductive, as many had anticipated. It seems like it was, quite frankly, a misallocation of time and resources. Still, there were two notable outcomes from this charade.
First, it’s become glaringly obvious that Vladimir Putin and his team have little to no interest in pursuing peace or ceasefires. Anyone who continues to believe that he might want anything other than continued conflict is, well, perhaps, living in a bubble of denial.
Secondly, these discussions highlighted that it’s actually Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who holds the power, not Trump or Putin, which is quite a twist.
While Ukraine may not have the same level of influence as the superpowers, it’s clear that this country holds the key to potentially ending the conflict. How? By addressing what Putin deems the “root cause” of the war.
Putin’s representative in Istanbul, Vladimir Medinsky, was quite blunt when he said, “We don’t want war, but we’re prepared for a prolonged conflict. How long are you willing to endure?” Good luck reconciling a willingness to fight for decades and at the same time express a desire for peace. However, Medinsky’s message was straightforward.
He also mentioned that Ukraine would have to concede some territory that Russia annexed in 2022—hardly a surprise.
Then we have Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president and prime minister, known for his indifferent remarks about Ukraine and the West. His latest comments on social media reflect a long history of dismissiveness towards any peace discussion, mocking Western leaders who are calling for a ceasefire and questioning their intelligence. He even suggested that peace plans should be discarded, which seems… well, a bit ridiculous.
The rhetoric from Medvedev and others shows just how far removed they are from rational dialogue.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Solovyov, a prominent Russian TV host, has similarly disparaged Western leaders, showing a willingness to escalate tensions further. His messages are often laced with hostility and have a consistent tone of arrogance. At least these figures are up front about their hardline stance regarding Ukraine and Europe.
The issue with Putin’s government is that its extreme actions undermine any cards it might have had in discussions that, ideally, would foster peace.
Russia can’t sustain this war indefinitely. Given the immense losses they’ve suffered—whether in soldiers or equipment—one might wonder how long they can keep this up, possibly until 2026.
Putin’s regime is, frankly, in a dire state. Any semblance of strength feels like a façade. If he had played his cards right—like a rational actor—he might have had more leverage. But by acting out so aggressively, he risks losing whatever negotiating power might remain.
Interestingly, it seems that neither side truly has the upper hand. Efforts by negotiators to engage seriously with Putin have faltered, as there’s a perception that he treats these discussions more as games than serious dialogues. Both he and Trump seem to have miscalculated their positions.
In contrast, Zelensky appears to be the one with actual influence. He’s shown readiness to negotiate for peace and even agree to a ceasefire, which speaks volumes.
While Ukrainian forces are currently in a stagnant position against Russia, they are also ramping up their own defenses, producing drones and armaments at significant rates. It creates a dynamic where Zelensky is gaining moral and political ground, even if they aren’t formally dictating terms in the negotiations.
More crucially, Ukraine has the potential to wear down Russia by continuing to halt its advances. This essentially limits Russia’s ability to recover and weakens its military capacity, which directly addresses the so-called “root cause” of the conflict.
