Not long ago, the expected 2028 Republican matchup seemed to be JD Vance against Marco Rubio. Prediction markets now give Ron DeSantis and Ted Cruz better odds of entering the race than either of them.
On a recent episode of “Predictable,” BlazeTV host Stu Burguiere reviewed Kalshi’s predictions for who might run and who could ultimately win.
At the time the episode was recorded, DeSantis led the list of likely Republican candidates, with a 90% chance of running. Burguiere noted a Washington Post report that the Florida governor was preparing another presidential bid, though DeSantis has denied it. “I don’t know what the truth is there,” Burguiere said.
Ted Cruz came next at 86%, followed by former Trump aide John McEntee. Burguiere seemed surprised to see McEntee so high on the list, asking, “Who is John McEntee? Do we know?”
Vance was fourth, at 73%. Burguiere thought that was low, saying he expected Vance to run. After him came Sen. Rand Paul at 66%, Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 60%, and Rep. Thomas Massie at 59%.
Burguiere said a Paul campaign could be interesting. He suggested the Kentucky senator might be drawn to the right political climate and could bring credibility to the Make America Healthy Again movement and antiwar causes.
Further down the list were former Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp at 57%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 52%, and former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin at 45%. Sen. Tom Cotton had 36%, Sen. Tim Scott 32%, Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders 31%, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum 30%, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. each had 29%.
Tucker Carlson was listed at 24%, but Burguiere doubted he would run, pointing to Carlson’s podcasts and private-sector work. He also dismissed the chances of Erika Kirk, at 5.4%, and Elon Musk, at 3.1%. Burguiere said Kirk was unlikely to seek the presidency and noted that Musk is not constitutionally eligible for the office.
When it came to the Republican nomination, Vance led with 34%, followed by Rubio at 18% and DeSantis at 17%.
The overall favorite to win the 2028 presidential election, however, was a Democrat. Following last week’s midterm rout, Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia led the field at 20%.
Vance followed at 13%, then Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York at 9.6%, Rubio at 9.4%, California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 8.4%, and DeSantis at 6.2%.
Beyond those candidates, Burguiere said, the field was made up mostly of Democrats. The numbers were “very split,” he added, and he expected a field of 15 to 20 candidates.
