Why Anthony Richardson is one of the NFL’s most intriguing quarterbacks to watch in 2024

Three quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, but their rookie seasons were very different. No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young had a disastrous first year with the Carolina Panthers, while No. 2 pick C.J. Stroud thrived with the Houston Texans, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year and playing in the AFC Divisional Round. Young is expected to improve greatly under new head coach Dave Canales, while Stroud is a preseason MVP candidate and a Super Bowl favorite.

And then there was Anthony Richardson, the fourth overall pick of the Indianapolis Colts. The 22-year-old Richardson was the most controversial quarterback in the draft, but unfortunately his rookie season ended in early October.

Between his lone season as a starter at Florida and a couple of seasons as a starter with the Colts, there's still a lack of data to show whether the NFL Combine hype surrounding Richardson is justified. He's an interesting case study in “tools over production.” Richardson's college stats weren't all that impressive on an otherwise unremarkable Gators team, but his physical traits were, in Robert Palmer's words, “just fascinating.”

What can we learn from his limited NFL sample size?

Richardson's NFL stats: 50/84 (59.5%) for 577 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 lost fumble, 7 sacks, 25 carries for 136 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns

Durability is really questionable

Richardson started four games but completed only one. He left the final series of his debut against the Jacksonville Jaguars with a bruised knee. He suffered a concussion in Week 2 against the Houston Texans and missed Week 3. He then suffered a season-ending AC joint sprain in Week 5 against the Tennessee Titans. All three injuries were sustained while running the ball.

At Florida, Richardson barely missed any actual playing time during his final year of college. Torn meniscus He was injured in a game against Florida State in 2021 and underwent surgery. He missed two games with other minor bruises and hurt his knee while dancing (No, seriously.It's too early to say for sure whether Richardson will be injury-prone, but his health will be one of many subplots in Richardson's sophomore season.

The Colts' offense was inconsistent, but explosive.

As of the game against the Los Angeles Rams (his only full appearance to date), Richardson led the NFL in explosive play rate. (12+ yard rushes and 20+ yard passes). The Rams' performance was emblematic of the ups and downs of Coach Richardson's Colts offense. Five of their 11 completions were explosive plays, including this crazy deep pass to receiver Alec Pierce, who was surrounded by Aaron Donald:

But for all their explosiveness, there were also some big setbacks: The Rams held the Colts to 3.7 yards per play and eight first downs while Richardson completed just 5 of 14 passes before turning a 23-8 deficit into a 23-23 tie in the fourth quarter.

In their debut against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Colts employed a decidedly conservative game plan, scoring 14 points on 14 drives. Jay Robbins in Stampede Blue However, Richardson noted that the team has become more aggressive in passing downfield since Week 1.

Accuracy remains an issue

One red flag about Richardson's skill set is his accuracy — he completed less than 55 percent of his throws in college — and while his motion is smooth and makes the ball look effortless, having an exceptionally powerful arm is meaningless if your aim and control are inconsistent.

Richardson completed 9 of 19 intermediate passes (10-19 yards from scrimmage) for 173 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Per PFFHis adjusted pass completion percentage (taking into account drops) was 52.6 percent, just ahead of Kenny Pickett and Tommy DeVito.

In the final preseason game of the year against the Cincinnati Bengals, Richardson completed 7 of 8 attempts for touchdowns, but threw 6 interceptions and completed just 1 of 6 attempts the rest of the way. Kirk Herbstreit suddenly finds himself in a QB controversy Between him and Joe Flacco.

Overthrowing the ball was a notable issue for Richardson in college, and his inconsistent delivery has continued into his pro career.

Richardson will be a red zone rushing threat.

A 4.43-second 40-yard dash is unusual for a player his size (6-foot-4, 244 pounds). While Richardson didn't have spectacular performances in his limited time frame (100 yards on 17 carries in projected rushing), he became the first rookie quarterback to score touchdowns in his first three starts. His power and acceleration make him extremely dangerous in the open field.

Richardson had six planned carries in the red zone, scoring four times. Among quarterbacks, only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts have more rushing touchdowns in the red zone than Richardson.

What will change in 2024?

Colts head coach Shane Steichen said in June about whether the team would limit Richardson's running back this season, “Are we going to limit Stephen Curry's 3-pointers?” Steichen, the former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator, had great success coaching Jalen Hart to an MVP runner-up finish in 2022, which makes a partnership with Richardson very appealing.

It's also worth pointing out that the Colts were without star running back Jonathan Taylor for seven games last year due to contract defaults and injuries. Taylor's return coincided with Richardson's season ending. The Colts finished eighth in rushing DVOA ( FTN FantasyDespite the extended absences of both players, Steichen opened the 2017 season with two straight wins. With one of the best lines in the league, Steichen is expected to use Richardson and Taylor heavily in the read and run-pass options in his playbook. Behind that OL, there's every reason to think Richardson will be an integral part of an elite rushing attack, finally getting the services of one of the league's best running backs.

But the Colts' offense will ultimately hinge on Richardson's rocket-like right arm, who isn't yet a polished enough passer to rely on scrambling or planned runs. Looking to bolster their wide receiver corps, Indianapolis' front office drafted Adonai “AD” Mitchell in the second round. He gives the Colts the deep threat and speed that top option Michael Pittman Jr. lacks, and if he has a strong preseason, he could quickly overtake the inconsistent Alec Pierce in target share. Josh Downs is injured and will miss Week 1's game against the Houston Texans, but the second-year player from North Carolina had a productive rookie season and would be a quality slot option for Richardson.

Before the draft (And after the draft), Richardson has often been compared to Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Allen had a similarly impressive performance at the Combine, but had far more collegiate experience than Richardson, though there were concerns about his accuracy, judgment and throwing mechanics at Wyoming. After being shaky in his first two pro seasons, Allen has improved his accuracy significantly and is now an MVP candidate every year (though he still faces intense scrutiny for his turnovers).

With just 18 starts under his belt since his high school days, it's fair to expect Richardson will experience growing pains, even if he's healthy and plays a full season, just like Allen did. There's no guarantee he'll develop as quickly or successfully as Allen did. But given his individual talent, the offensive talent surrounding him and Steichen's ingenious schemes, success is likely sooner rather than later.

The Colts aren't expected to make the AFC playoffs, but if Richardson can improve some of their biggest flaws and make the most of their biggest strengths, Indy could take another step forward after narrowly missing the playoffs last year with Minshew at the helm. At the very least, Richardson should be very entertaining to watch, and his development is a must-watch TV choice this season and beyond.