In August 2021, President Biden reached a tipping point; Transition from net positive to net negative His approval ratings went down — and he’s never recovered. Ominously, he passed what appeared to be a new tipping point in November. decisively falling behind Donald Trump in a voting test. And he may never recover from it either.
Despite the noise, the 2024 presidential race followed a fairly simple incumbent-challenge dynamic, albeit with some hiccups. Trump’s unpopularity.The incumbent president departed with strong determination. First “honeymoon” The poll backlash worsened over time, as challenges to the president naturally created division and disappointment.
However, this is not a typical race, with former presidents Over 90 criminal charges The incumbent president’s poll numbers have been collapsing almost continuously, with little sign of improvement. Approval and voting test polls have been fairly stable. Politics may be chaotic, but voters are moving at a glacial pace.
First change: from positive approval to negative approval.
Biden’s job approval On April 9, 2021, it reached its highest favorable rating of 55.2%. Failure to withdraw from Afghanistan It was the worst evaluation of him. Shortly after, he dropped to a net negative approval rating. By July 2022, Biden had reached his lowest point, with a 57.5 percent deficit, a net negative of more than 20 points.of Incompetent Republican midterm elections motion, Candidates who support Trump and historical overperformance That’s because Democrats pushed Biden to a net negative margin of just 6 points in February 2023.
But it’s been downhill ever since, and the decline hasn’t reached the level that occurred from summer 2021 to summer 2022. Mr. Biden had an approval rating of 40.5% and a disapproval rating of 55.5%, resulting in a net deficit of 15 points. While not record-breaking, his deficits are well below most deficits. president Similar points can be seen in the first semester.
Second Change: From Trump’s Victory to Defeat
Collapses in approval ratings typically coincide with declines in reelection support. But that didn’t happen with Biden.Mainly Trump and Biden Place of transaction From November 2022 to early October 2023, the difference is within 1.5 points. When Biden’s vote count plummeted in early 2023, Trump initially had an advantage in polling tests, but then lost ground over the summer.It seems like the top Republican candidate is at his own bottomless level. Favorability rating The ratings protected Biden from major damage.
But that changed after the war Hamas attack on Israel And that The immigration crisis is intensifying. In mid-October, Biden managed to tie with Trump in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average, but he quickly fell behind and has continued to do so ever since. Mr. Trump has at times succeeded in pulling out 3- or 4-point leads, something Mr. Biden has never been able to do.
Opinion polls that began after the Hamas attack showed Trump with a 50-vote lead, Biden with a 20-vote lead, and a 12-vote tie. Aside from the recent Quinnipiac poll. significant outlierMr. Biden has not had a lead of more than 2 points since Nov. 12, while Mr. Trump has had a lead of 2 points or more 21 times.
After hating Trump for three years and hating Biden for almost the same amount of time, it appears that key citizens have decided they hate Biden even more and have moved to the Trump camp. This is a dangerous development for Biden, given how calm most Americans have shown themselves to be in their opinions regarding Biden vs. Trump. Unlike most past presidents who have slumped in their first terms but been able to bounce back, Mr. Biden has shown no signs of doing so.
To make matters worse, Biden’s approval ratings have collapsed in several key states since October, leaving him trailing in the electoral college race. arizona Since Trump took over in August, Biden currently has a 4.5-point lead. georgia In mid-October, he switched to Mr. Trump (with a 7 point lead). michigan November (5 point lead). If these three states go to Trump’s camp in November, Trump will receive 277 electoral votes and win.
And Trump has a cushion. nevada He came to power in early November (with a 7 point lead) and was awarded 283 electoral votes. wisconsin Similarly, in early November, the vote went from a clear lead for Biden to a near tie. pennsylvania Biden has been up and down lately, supported by what appears to be a Susquehanna outlier poll and some low-quality college polls.
That combination of national voting testing changes and Biden’s collapse in key battleground states makes the president the clear underdog at this point.
How stuck is Biden?
Biden is really in trouble, but he can’t whistle over the grave. statistical gymnastics You can change that. It’s bad that he lost his lead in national voting tests, but his poor polling in battleground states casts serious doubt on his re-election. The deficit is large, and Biden must still hold on to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Given the relative stability of voter opinion, sudden moves are unlikely.
Concerning Biden is the worsening international situation and the immigration crisis. In the former, his team has shown no ability to calm the waves, and his administration has no clear national security strategy at all. It would be overconfident to expect a coherent policy to be developed within a few months when there has been no policy for more than three years.
Regarding the immigration crisis, Trump’s unscrupulous falsification and Republican chaos It has helped Biden, but only in the blame game. The fact remains that he is unable to handle the crisis. As president, Biden will shoulder most of the responsibility.his Claim Saying that nothing can be done without new laws is patently absurd and unlikely to gain public sympathy over time. Worse, the allegations worsen the public image of him as a weak leader unfit for office.
Biden is seen as weak leader It was supported by 63% of the public, including 74% of independents and 25% of party members. By contrast, Trump is seen as a strong leader by 55% of Americans and 53% of independents. In times of turmoil, people seek a strong hand. Biden’s money-making efforts may buy him some time, but they won’t help him in the long run.
Biden is relying primarily on Trump’s self-destruction, but it’s a good bet. But given the challenges facing Biden and his administration’s seeming inability to deal with the crisis, Trump’s self-destruction would have to be pretty impressive. Incredibly, the polls are so bad that Trump may even survive a conviction.Recent marist vote If Trump is convicted, Biden would lead by 51% to 45% in the national vote. However, Marist polls favor Biden and do not survey individual states.
A conviction would certainly be a huge help to Biden, but the trial would have to take place before the election, leaving plenty of room for things to go wrong for the president. Biden would benefit from aggressively tackling the immigration crisis, even if it alienates his support base. He has to bet on their antipathy toward Trump. He doesn’t have the option of getting confused and getting over it.
Dr. Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Norton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.
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