Why Bills vs. Chiefs is about which team will be less self-destructive

The most anticipated matchups of the NFL Divisional Round weekend are: kansas city chiefs–buffalo bills competition. The Bills will be the home team for the first time since 2020, and Patrick Mahomes will face a road playoff atmosphere for the first time in his career.

The last time we saw these teams meet in the postseason two years ago, it was one of the greatest games in NFL history, with Kansas City winning in a classic overtime game, 42-36. Beyond the 1,000 yards of offense and quarterbacking masterclass from Mahomes and Josh Allen, the quality of play was surprisingly clean, with no turnovers and only four penalties allowed.

This Sunday's showdown presents a different dynamic than previous playoff games. The 2023 edition of Kansas City and Buffalo was never a rich machine. Their identical 11-6 district record came with many struggles throughout the season, most of which were self-inflicted.

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The Chiefs and Bills are the only teams left in the playoffs that rank in the top 10 in turnovers and percentage of offensive drives that end in turnovers. What's the big difference? Both teams turned it over 28 times, but the Chiefs' turnover differential was -11 compared to Buffalo's +2. Kansas City only had a positive turnover differential twice all season. Patrick Mahomes has single-handedly committed as many turnovers as any other great Chiefs defense has forced (17).

Kansas City is often its own worst enemy. Last season, the Chiefs became the eighth team to win the Super Bowl despite having a negative turnover margin (-3) during the regular season. You have to go back to the 1983 Raiders for the last time an eventual Super Bowl champion team had a turnover margin of less than -10. They are the only divisional round team with negative expected points added (EPA) due to turnovers.

The Bills are one of the NFL's best teams in net EPA on turnovers, even though Josh Allen leads the league in turnovers (22) and ranks second in interceptions thrown (18). you might notice. As mentioned earlier, the Bills defense is great at forcing turnovers, but a look at the offensive stats shows that not all turnovers are given equal weight. Allen is prone to making rash decisions and sloppy mistakes, but his interceptions weren't that high compared to other players.

This isn't to say Buffalo hasn't lost or nearly lost games due to sloppiness. Of the five games in which the Bills had a turnover margin of -2 or less, all were against non-playoff opponents, resulting in a 2-3 record. Despite currently on a six-game winning streak, they cruised to a 24-22 victory over Easton Stick's team. Los Angeles Chargers They committed three turnovers, all resulting in Charger points.

drop

You may have heard a story or two about the Chiefs' pass catchers treating footballs like freshly erupted magma.

The Chiefs lead the NFL in drops and drop rate, with Kadarius Toney turning two high-profile drops into interceptions, while Travis Kelce (seven) and rookie Lachie Rice (eight) Book) had the most drops of any Chiefs player (according to the data). pro football reference).

Bills players aren't immune to hydrops either. Total drops (30) quietly ranks him 7th, and drop percentage (5.2%) ranks him tied for 9th.against denver broncosthe Bills were dinged with four drops, one of which turned into an interception.

Not only does James Cook lead the league in fumbles among running backs, he also throws down two potential touchdowns.

Penalties

Buffalo earned the seventh-most penalties during the regular season. In their last game against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Bills were flagged 11 times for 80 yards, including consecutive false starts that resulted in a punt from field goal range.

However, quantity is not always important. In addition to the drop against Denver, a pass interference penalty brought the Broncos within range of a winning field goal, and the infamous 12-man on-field nullified Will Lutz's missed kick and there was no mistake on the retry.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have accepted 96 penalties, about the league average. Just imagine how much better these numbers would be without right tackle Ja’Wuan Taylor. Who is the player with the most one-mile penalties in the NFL?, and received the most punishment in the past eight years. Last week against the Miami Dolphins, Taylor was hurt with a foul block that nullified a Laci Rice touchdown.

Of course, the Bills-Chiefs matchup in Week 14 of the regular season might have had a different outcome had Kadarius Toney's offside not been heard “for all the world to hear.”

Toney will definitely not play a role in Sunday's game as he is sidelined with hip and ankle injuries.

It's a cliché that the team that makes fewer mistakes wins, but that couldn't be more true in this battle of Super Bowl teams that make more mistakes.