There is a lot of roster turnover in the NFL every year, especially in the postseason.
Since 1990, an average of 5.85 new teams have made the playoffs after missing the playoffs the previous year, and each of the past 34 years has seen at least four new postseason teams.
So, which teams will crash the party this season and which will make a surprising exit? Let's take a closer look and find some worthwhile bets.
Playoff team: Seahawks (+180, DraftKings)
The Seahawks made the playoffs in 2022 but narrowly missed out last year, finishing tied with the Packers at 9-8, but a tiebreaker saw Green Bay advance.
But I expect Seattle to return to the playoffs in head coach Mike McDonald's first season.
McDonald oversaw a historic defense in Baltimore last year that led the Ravens to the NFL's first Triple Crown victory and the league's lowest points allowed (16.5 per game), sacks (60) and turnovers (31).
Seattle has talent at every level of the defense, led by young defensive backs Rik Uhlen and Devon Witherspoon.
Seattle's offense is also expected to improve under new coordinator Ryan Grubb, who guided Michael Pennis Jr. to a Heisman-winning season last year with Washington.
Coach Grubb is expected to emphasize play-action passing, increased tempo and creativity in the red zone, all of which will help Geno Smith, as will improved health of an offensive line that struggled to stay on the field last year.
The Seahawks play in a tough NFC West division and have a middle-ranked schedule, but don't be surprised to see Seattle improve significantly and return to the postseason.
Teams that won't make the playoffs: Cowboys (+170, BetMGM)
The Cowboys won 12 games in three consecutive seasons, winning the NFC East in two of those seasons.
But there is a potential downside for a team that has the 11th-toughest schedule in the league this year, based on Vegas' projected win totals, according to Sharp Football.
Dak Prescott had the best year of his career and came close to winning MVP in 2023, but it came against the easiest schedule for opposing defenses. Dallas' schedule has been strengthened this year, and it didn't help that the offense lost left tackle Tyron Smith and center Tyler Biadasz.
Brock Hoffman, the projected replacement at center, has played limited snaps since entering the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2022.
Rookie Tyler Guyton made one start at left tackle in an Oklahoma offense that rarely used the traditional three-step dropback.
The loss of coordinator Dan Quinn and secondary coach Joe Witt Jr. could also be a setback for the defense.
Dallas has survived with an unsustainable turnover rate over the past few seasons.
The Cowboys lead the NFL by a wide margin with +130 EPA gained from turnovers, according to Sharp Football, but things should come back to reality under their new leader.
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It's not all bad news for Dallas, as Prescott and CeeDee Lamb were one of the most profitable QB-WR duos in the league last year.
But there’s a reason the Cowboys are at 9.5 wins and I think they’ll be competing for a playoff spot at the end of the season.
