Why it matters that this year’s election campaign will be so long

Get ready for the longest general election campaign in living memory.

It is already looking increasingly likely that the November election will be a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump.

No matter what Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) or author Marianne Williamson may argue, Mr. Biden does not face a serious challenge to winning the Democratic nomination.

Trump has comfortably won both of the early races in the Republican primary cycle so far, knocking Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) out of the race. Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley says it will take some kind of political miracle to defeat President Trump.

Neither Biden nor Trump will become formal candidates until the Republicans hold their conventions in Milwaukee in July and the Democrats in Chicago in August. But it’s likely to be just a formality.

Both men largely cleared this field, but Biden in 2020, Trump in 2016, and other recent presidential candidates didn’t complete the task until much later. The 2008 Democratic primary saw an epic clash between then-Sen. For example, Barack Obama (Illinois) and Hillary Clinton (New York) remained fiercely competitive into May.

Here are five reasons why campaign length matters this year.

More time to stumble

Republicans like to attack Biden with accusations that he won the 2020 election “from the basement.”

Although the tone of the attack is partisan, there is a grain of truth in it.

The 2020 election was unlike any other, fought in a national context transformed by the coronavirus pandemic. Rallies and stump appearances have been significantly reduced, and the pandemic has also affected the debate schedule. President Trump declined to participate in the second debate after organizers decided to hold it virtually instead of in-person.

Mr. Biden, 81, and Mr. Trump, 77, now face a grueling nine-month campaign. They do it under a spotlight where no physical or mental stumbles are allowed.

Polls consistently show that more voters are concerned about Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump regarding his mental capacity to serve an effective second term. If the president makes any mistakes, there could be a huge political cost.

But risk is not a one-way street. President Trump’s repeated use of Haley’s name in a recent speech, clearly intended to refer to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), raised concerns about her fitness for office. Ta.

Voter boredom—and an opportunity for third-party candidates

Even in a divided nation, millions of Americans can agree on one thing. That means they’re rolling their eyes at a rematch between Biden and Trump.

Polls have repeatedly shown dissatisfaction with the contest between a president who has been a central figure in national politics for half a century and Trump, the most polarizing politician of his generation.

A January poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos found that 67% of Americans say they are tired of seeing the same candidate in the presidential election and want a new candidate.

One of the big questions is whether the ennui of a rematch between Biden and Trump will fuel real enthusiasm for a third-party candidate.

In a Gallup poll last fall, 63 percent of Americans said they needed a third-party agency, the highest number in 20 years of polling.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean the actual third-party candidate has a realistic chance of winning.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is seeking to run as an independent candidate and typically polls stronger than any other option, has 14% support in a recent Quinnipiac University poll. , falling more than 20 points behind both Biden and Trump.

There are two other major unknowns. The question is whether Mr. Kennedy and other third-party candidates will be able to get on the ballot in key states, and whether the controversial centrist group No Labels will endorse candidates.

There’s plenty of room for President Trump’s legal drama to unfold.

The basic details of Mr. Trump’s unprecedented legal troubles are gradually emerging. He has been charged with four criminal offenses, totaling 91 charges.

These charges include alleged falsification of business records in New York, classified documents found at Mar-a-Lago, an attempt to overturn the 2020 election in Georgia, and the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. It includes federal lawsuits related to efforts to overturn the election, including riots. , 2021.

Separately, Trump was found guilty in a civil trial last year of sexually abusing and defaming author E. Jean Carroll.

All of this leaves Republicans in a very strange position. The man who is almost certain to be a candidate will very likely be a convicted felon by the time the election rolls around.

Mr. Trump’s lawyers have been trying to delay all trials, with some success.

On Friday, U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan formally postponed the start of Trump’s trial in a federal lawsuit over the 2020 election. Proceedings there have been slowed by the Trump team’s insistence that Trump will not be prosecuted for his actions while in office. This claim is still being decided in other courts.

Still, Trump’s New York trial is scheduled to begin late next month, the Mar-a-Lago case in May, and the Georgia case in August.

It will take enough time for his actions to come under legal scrutiny.

What will be the impact on the dollar?

It’s unclear exactly how the costs of this year’s campaign will be allocated.

Biden and Trump have had more time to engage in TV ad battles with each other. But Mr. Biden has spent virtually nothing to defeat his main opponent, and Mr. Trump appears to be nearing the end of the process on the Republican side.

Biden became the first candidate to raise more than $1 billion from donors in 2020, according to OpenSecrets, which tracks political spending. The group estimates that total spending on the presidential election four years ago, including spending from outside groups, was about $5.7 billion.

There is no doubt that there will be huge spending in the roughly seven states that are expected to determine the outcome of the election.

The latest fundraising figures show the Biden campaign has a financial advantage over the Trump campaign.

At the start of 2024, the Biden campaign had about $46 million in cash on hand, while the Trump campaign had $33 million.

9 months of surprises

The current political climate may change irrevocably by the time Election Day approaches.

Will the pace of economic recovery accelerate, or could the recession become even deeper? The conflict between Israel and Palestine, which already appears to be escalating with Friday’s US attacks on Iraq and Syria, What will happen? Could Biden or Trump suffer a health event that changes everything?

It’s easy to emphasize how quickly things change.

Almost to that day four years ago, the Department of Homeland Security ordered all flights from China to the United States to transit through 11 airports for increased screening amid concerns about an unusual respiratory virus. About six weeks later, the country went into lockdown and everything changed.

There may not be anything on this scale this year, but nine months is a long time in politics.