What really constitutes a political victory? Both sides are clearly positioning a presidential victory as a success in the 2024 election, which is influencing their strategies.
This election cycle presents a historically unusual premise. In other words, a short-term victory for either party in the 2024 presidential election would likely mean that the opposition would win several consecutive election cycles, and could reap the benefits in Congress and the executive branch.
I suggest that both parties' current strategies for securing power are fundamentally flawed and rooted in the short-term “get broke” goal of winning the presidency.
For example, the four years of the Carter administration created a positive Doppler effect for the Republican Party. the result, Republican president wins 3rd consecutive victory The steady increase in both chambers created a Republican-controlled House for the first time in four decades during the Clinton administration.
According to Gallup, Jimmy Carter's administration started with an approval rating of 66 percent, but after he left office, it dropped to 34 percent. This was largely due to a perceived policy failure.
In retrospect, President Ford's loss to Carter in the 1976 presidential election can be seen as a critical event that hastened the rise of Ronald Reagan and the realignment of the Republican Party. This reconfiguration shows how short-term defeats against unpopular presidential candidates advance the losing side's long-term political interests.
Fast forward to the current election cycle and two candidates. true transparent politics Both Harris and Trump's favorability ratings are below 50%. Both candidates will be climbing out of a deep hole at the start of their terms with nearly 20 percentage points lower approval ratings than Mr. Carter. Combining this with perceived failures in policy or leadership can create a similar or even greater positive Doppler effect on the opposition.
For example, Trump's victory could lead to a vengeful presidency, as candidate Trump has repeatedly expressed his intention to use the full power of the executive branch to seek retaliation against his political opponents.
President Trump's polarizing personality has aroused contempt throughout society, to the point where some have described it as anaphylactic. trump confusion syndrome. Even within the Republican Party, Trump has alienated some within the party.Never a Trumper” And those who only reluctantly vote for him.
This, combined with policies that appear to be failings (particularly those related to the economy and border crisis), could provide Democrats with significant long-term electoral cycle gains in the legislative and executive branches.
A corresponding loss for Harris would allow the Democratic Party to rally around a candidate who is less fictionalized and backed by a legitimate nominating process who won't be forced to inherit someone else's platform overnight. It will be possible.
Furthermore, the Democratic Party under the Biden-Harris administration is divided into multiple factions over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The party needs time to develop a consensus position on this divisive issue, and this may be best accomplished away from the spotlight of the Oval Office. During this period, the party refined its policy goals related to its core ideals of wealth redistribution, DEI, and climate change, and sought to reframe these ideals as a way to build a lasting and healthy economy. can.
Trump's victory also frees the Democratic Party from the generational constraints that have impeded its inevitable shedding of classical liberalism and could accelerate the party's current evolution toward full-fledged postmodern progressivism. be. The party could re-emerge within four years, united around a revamped and refined platform, with strong, clear candidates through a legitimate nomination process.
So what happens if Harris wins? Harris has energized the Democratic base and looks strong against Trump, but if she wins, her ultra-progressive policies will appeal to American voters caught between the center-left and the right. There are concerns that this will alienate the bell curve. This is especially true if her policies fail to resolve the border crisis, high interest rates, and growing fears of a recession.
There are also claims by Sen. Bernie Sanders (R-Vermont) that recent deviations from the party platform through Harris' rhetoric are not sincere. The idea is that once she is elected, she will return to her extreme progressive form. If Mr. Sanders is right, this big bad guy will excite voters and have a powerful, long-term Doppler effect on the Republican Party.
Likewise, a Trump defeat would free the Republican Party from the cult of personality that has defined the party for the past four election cycles, including 2024. 8 big losses over this period. The party could begin the process of redefining itself around policy goals sufficient to appeal to a majority of Americans that could lead to long-term power in the executive and legislative branches of government. There is.
The Republican Party has four years to unite around a less polarizing leader who fully recognizes the role of the president in historical context and who speaks clearly on the salient issues of the party. It will be done.
No matter who wins, this race will be eventful. of RealClearPolitics poll average Even though there are about 40 days until the general election, both Harris and Trump are showing to be nearly dead. Both candidates are within the margin of error in battleground states. A victory is unlikely to give either candidate the power to govern or give House and Senate candidates an advantage in down-ballot voting.
No matter who wins, the next presidential term will likely begin with the Senate and House of Representatives deeply divided, leaving Trump ineligible for re-election as a lame duck.
This legislative impasse should allay concerns that the claims of tyrannical overreach and the “end of democracy” promoted by both parties appear to be greatly exaggerated. While the actions of Harris and Trump through presidential executive action should not be overlooked, newly elected presidents in the past have been successful in implementing strong executive actions that reversed the actions of previous administrations.
What was done can be undone, but campaigners shouldn't devise strategies to defeat their presidential candidate or expect voters to check boxes for the opposition.
All I would suggest is that disappointed voters on the losing side take solace in this unusual election cycle. Losing the presidency in 2024 could be an event that results in a more permanent and long-term victory for their party.
Stephen Lile is a Strategy and Innovation Researcher at the University of Cambridge's Judge Business School.
