The Rangers are still unloved in the sports betting world, sitting as a +130 underdog to the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference Finals.
“As oddsmakers, we base our odds on facts and statistics, not hope,” Johnny Abello, DraftKings director of trading, told the Post. “That doesn’t mean the Rangers can’t win the Cup, but when you look at both teams, the Panthers are slightly better on paper.
“We respect the Rangers, but all of the stats that the algorithm tells us are what we’ve seen all year long. We have a whole team that works just on hockey, and we It’s based on the probabilities of all the information you have.”
DraftKings told the Post that it is sticking with the Panthers -150 vs. Rangers +130 pricing because it is often the first to publish odds as soon as a matchup is announced.
On the other hand, other books may have had worse odds against the Panthers, and books with a -150+ record on the Panthers will continue to see money coming in.
“Rangers will have more money this year. They’ve always been that way, but now they’re an even bigger threat,” Avello said with a laugh. “But we’re not worried about that. We’re just trying to make the odds as fair as possible to attract both recreational and sharp money.”
Craig McCraw, vice president of trading at Caesars Sportsbook, is watching the Panthers after they advanced to the Stanley Cup a year ago and lost in five games to the Golden Knights.
“Because of Florida’s physical strength and their appearance in the Stanley Cup Finals a year ago, they are a small favorite at Caesars Sportsbook against the Rangers in the conference finals,” McCraw said in an email.
Currently, the Panthers are a -140 favorite, while the Rangers at Caesars are +118, significantly lower than most of the market.
“We can already see some money going into Florida for Game 1, making Florida the slight favorite heading into Wednesday’s opener,” McCraw said.
BetMGM takes a similar approach, boasting a stats-first mentality for the Rangers vs. Panthers series.
“The Florida Panthers lead the NHL in several statistical categories, most notably ranking first overall in goal differential,” sports trader Matthew Rasp told the Post. “Despite the team’s success, some players on the Rangers have not performed as well as expected. Meanwhile, (Sergei) Bobrovsky continues to have an impressive season as the Panthers’ anchor.”
BetMGM did not return a more specific request about which players in particular are underperforming.
“The Rangers have the edge at goaltending, but the Panthers have depth throughout the team and if you look at the top line, they’re even, but the Rangers do most of their damage on special teams,” Abello said.
“When we evaluate a team’s power rating, we evaluate the Panthers’ offense and defense, but the Rangers get an edge on special teams and goaltending.”
Abello said that after this round, the Rangers will be at least a +100 underdog against either the Stars or Oilers, who will compete in the Western Conference finals starting Thursday night in Dallas.
Would you bet on the NHL?
The Rangers currently have +400 odds to win the Stanley Cup Final, making them the worst odds of the four teams remaining in the playoffs.
“+400 is based on you already being the underdog in this series,” Abello said. “And next game we’ll at least get closer to picking them. Maybe next series we’ll pick the small dogs.”
Even if the Rangers are on the back foot, this series is expected to be close.
“My gut feeling is that this series has gone far,” Abello concluded. “Last time we spoke, I said the Rangers were dangerous. Well, they’re an even bigger danger than the last time we spoke.”
