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Why the Miami Dolphins should not have extended Tua Tagovailoa

I think having a sports car is a lot of fun.

I think it’s pretty exhilarating to drive at high speed with the roof down and Toby Keith’s “Beer For My Horses” blasting while everyone else stops, stares, and wishes they were you.

Until winter hits, when you’ll really want an SUV.

that is Miami Dolphins That’s right, they’re NFL convertibles, and instead of saving up for an upgrade, they panicked and paid Tua Tagovailoa to invest it all in a car that won’t get them where they’re going.

The Tua Tagovailoa issue

Looking at the stats alone, Tua is one of the best quarterbacks in football. Over the past two seasons, he has a passer rating over 100, scored 54 touchdowns, ranked fifth in EPA per play, fourth in adjusted EPA per play and sixth in CPOE. The Dolphins also led the NFL in total offense in 2023 and were second in scoring.

But Miami has had a terrible record against the NFL’s best teams. Last season (including the playoffs), the Dolphins were 1-6 against playoff teams, averaging 16.6 points per game and Tua throwing eight touchdowns and seven interceptions.

They’ve not only lost those games, they’ve been humiliated. In their six combined losses to the Bills, Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs, they’ve been outscored 203-91. That’s an average of 34-15 per game. And going back to 2022 (including playoffs), they’re 5-12 against teams that finished with winning records in the past two seasons. By comparison, the Bills are 12-7 against teams with winning records in the past two seasons (including playoffs).

Miami can’t swim with Tua and all the splashing around, especially when it gets cold. Miami is 0-11 in their last 11 games when the temperature at kickoff is below 40 degrees. They play in a conference where they have to go to Cincinnati, Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and New York to get to the Super Bowl, but that’s enough to keep the Dolphins out of serious championship contention until they prove they can win in the cold.

The lack of a track record of wins against the NFL’s top teams, Tua’s lackluster performances in those games and his inability to perform in the cold were all major red flags that Miami ignored while at the negotiating table and will undoubtedly come back to haunt them when they are sent home every January until Tua’s new contract extension is up and running.

NFL coaches aren’t afraid of Tua Tagovailoa

If any of the evidence so far is incriminating enough for Tua, then so should the opinions of NFL coaches.

In the work Sports Illustrated By Matt Verderame Multiple NFL defensive coordinators have said Tua is not feared around the league.One of them was discussing how they will prepare for the matchup against the Dolphins and how much of that preparation will be allocated to stopping Tua.

“The best way to look at it is the speed at the skill positions and preparing for Mike McDaniels and Tua,” one coordinator said. “He doesn’t like getting hit or reading coverage. When is he at his best? RPOs and quick games. The next thing you have to ask yourself is, how many quarterbacks do you pick ahead of him?”

The last part of this quote is probably the most important. Would you choose Tua over Trevor Lawrence? Kyler Murray? No, Brock Purdy? I wouldn’t. Overall, I would choose 18 quarterbacks over Tua. And depending on how Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Anthony Richardson perform this season, that number will probably grow to 21.

The Dolphins shouldn’t have handcuffed Tua simply because the numbers were gaudy, but think about how many teams have done so recently because they felt handcuffed. Jacksonville Jaguars With Blake Bortles New York Giants They did it with Daniel Jones, and while Tua is better than both of those guys, at least Boltz and Jones can say they won playoff games.

The Dolphins have had two of the best receivers in football over the last two years, the league’s most explosive offense during the regular season, and have had as many playoff wins as you, our readers, and while moving on may have been a risk, it would have been better to take the plunge rather than marry a quarterback who would have lowered the team’s ceiling.

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