Why the Sixers have no chance to beat the Knicks in the NBA playoffs

of philadelphia 76ers They’ve been all the rage since win against miami heat in the first game of the play-in tournament. critic And enthusiasts alike gas them as one of the seven most dangerous seeds in recent memory.

Joel Embiid’s comeback after meniscus surgery is a lasting confidence booster, but Philadelphia is still without the player who was the top candidate for his second MVP award. There’s no hyperbaric chamber to throw him into before the series against the New York Knicks.

So Philadelphia might be. They’ll have an advantage in several corners to win the series or make it much more competitive than the average 2-7 playoff matchup. Friends of DraftKingsFor example, suppose both teams have even odds of winning -110. There are three clear reasons why you shouldn’t do this.

Kevin Love bullied Joel Embiid Wednesday night.

Embiid’s expression was terrible as the 76ers surged up the standings to beat the Heat. Not only was he not his usual self, but 35-year-old Kevin Love gave him the job.

Embiid hit Love’s guard for one-two shots and turned the ball over twice. On one of Philadelphia’s final possessions in the first quarter, Embiid couldn’t even get into position to catch the ball because Love was so outnumbered.

Love is listed at 6-foot-8 and 215 pounds and is coming off the season in which he played the fewest minutes of his career.

of new york knicks There’s Isaiah Hartenstein.

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Hartenstein has good reason to make the All-Defensive team this year. The 25-year-old big man is listed at 7 feet tall and weighs 250 pounds, and he just played more minutes than ever this season in place of the injured Mitchell Robinson.

Of the 131 players who have guarded at least 1,000 shots inside the restricted area this year, Hartenstein held opponents to the second-lowest field goal percentage in the league (60.7 percent).he was tied to minnesota timberwolves Center Rudy Gobert is the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year.

Embiid appeared in only one away game. knicks This year, that was before he got injured. In that match, Hartenstein guarded him for 9 minutes and 06 seconds of game time. No other Knicks player guarded him for more than a minute.

The reigning MVP shot 9-for-21 and turned the ball over five times.

From the showing we got in the first play-in game, it’s abundantly clear that Embiid is not himself. He’s not the frontrunner for MVP, having dominated the league for half the season. But in Philadelphia, he cannot time travel to that time of year. They have to play against this Knicks team now, this Embiid’s version.

And this version of Embiid could barely move the old love. Hartenstein will accept his lunch money and grin in his face while doing it.

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Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid can’t guard Jalen Brunson

Jalen Brunson is coming off one of the best Knicks seasons in decades. He had more win shares (11.2) than any Knick since Stephon Marbury (11.7) in 2005, when the team missed the playoffs. Anthony Mason’s 1996 Knicks (11.3) were a team that batted over .500, but they also won fewer games than this year’s group (47).

You have to go all the way back to Patrick Ewing in 1994 to find a Knick with more wins (57) and a higher win share (13.1) on the team than Brunson this season.

The New York team advanced to the finals.

But it’s not just his scoring that makes Brunson special, it’s the way he works.and his ways will make people’s lives hell 76ers.

Brunson has completed more pick-and-rolls this year (809) than any other ball handler in the league. Among the 74 players who ran at least 200 pick-and-rolls, a quarter of the possessions Brunson had, he ranked 9th in points per possession (1.05) and 10th in scoring frequency ( 47.5%), ranking 20th in effective field goal percentage. (53.1%).

Philadelphia’s likely starting lineup heading into the series will consist of Tyrese Maxey, Kyle Lowry, Kelly Oubre Jr., Tobias Harris and Embiid. Lowry showed great grit against the Heat, but Brunson is a different animal than anyone Miami can throw at him. In fact, Oubre was Brunson’s primary defender for most of the season and performed well. Brunson shot just 5-of-16 from the field with Oubre guarding him, but made four of his nine triples. That’s the 76ers’ answer, right?

Regardless of whether Tom Thibodeau has anything to say about it.

In a playoff-like environment, where the game is refined and you see the best players getting more minutes, more touches and more shot attempts, New York isn’t going to allow Philadelphia to match up like they want.

If Oubre sticks with Brunson, Hartenstein will likely join the screen. If Philadelphia tries to move him ahead of time, Thibodeau will try to avoid it. If Oubre fights through screens, Brunson can drive, and if he gets underneath he can get open threes.

Oubre may be a bit of an X-factor in this series, but the Knicks are going to attack Philadelphia’s weaknesses every chance they get.

Maxie, on the other hand, was completely burned. Brunson shot 5-7 in the regular season with Maxey guarding him, including 5-6 from the inside arc. Meanwhile, Brunson shot 3-6 against Embiid.

The fact that Embiid has only played in one game this season against the Knicks obviously needs to be taken into account. In any case, the sample size here is small. However, the results are true and worth noting.

When the Knicks have Brunson and Hartenstein running the pick-and-roll, Embiid almost always plays drop defense. This leaves Brunson with too much room to work with.

In that game, Philadelphia tested various players against Brunson (one of them was Jaden Springer, but he is no longer on the team). Nicolas Batum was not fast enough.

When New York got the switch they wanted and Maxey went to Brunson, he couldn’t keep up.

And even if Embiid steps up a little higher up the floor to protect Brunson, Brunson still finds a way around the 7-foot behemoth.

But there’s another important difference here. Brunson burned even with a healthy, more mobile version of Embiid, but that’s not the case with who will guard Brunson in the pick-and-roll.

This version…

Embiid looked brutal as the 76ers were fighting back against the Heat in the third quarter. Jimmy Butler missed a corner 3, but got another chance on the wing, and the 76ers star didn’t even try to get the shutout.

He saw Butler and half-heartedly tried to get out and defend him, ending up looking like a guy who tried to run the Boston Marathon without any training.

Through no fault of his own, Embiid is not himself. That’s the reality of the situation.

To make matters worse, he also He has a history of venting gas in the fourth quarter. Now back from meniscus surgery earlier in the season, Thibodeau is looking to get into as many pick-and-roll situations as possible against Brunson. Add in the fact that Maxey will almost certainly be on the floor, and Brunson should definitely cook up Philadelphia.

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Jalen Brunson is ready to surpass Joel Embiid

The playoff series comes down to star players. The game slows down, every possession becomes more meaningful, and the offense becomes more and more focused. The best players have the ball in their hands at every turn and do exactly the same thing.

Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray’s pick-and-rolls will increase tenfold as the reigning champions spam their go-to cheat codes as they look to defend their titles.

Shai Gilgeous vs. Alexander drives will become even more common as Converse-wearing superstars try to weave through opposing defenses that know what’s going to happen but haven’t figured out the answer yet.

While the Dallas Mavericks are trying to space the floor vertically and horizontally, Luka Doncic’s pick-and-rolls go through the roof, giving the Slovenian superstar an open lob and a shooter.

For the Knicks, it will be Brunson in the pick-and-roll. break the bones Hartenstein’s screens were combined with an elusive drive and step-back game by one of the league’s most slippery guards.

And for the 76ers, Embiid will be in the post. A back-to-the-basket, power-driven mindset can be tamed by a lingering meniscus issue that clearly hasn’t fully subsided.

But how did each player perform in the postseason?

Embiid has a total of 27 wins and 26 losses in the playoffs. Only one game was over .500. Brunson, on the other hand, hasn’t played in as many games. He only played in 36 games in the playoffs.

Still, his winning percentage is the same as Embiid’s 18 wins and 18 losses.

And before the “he had Luka Doncic” crowd rolled in, Brunson became a force in the world. dallas mavericksThe team aims to advance to the Western Conference Finals in 2022.

The two players also have fairly similar postseason stats in terms of scoring and efficiency.

Embiid: 24.0 points, 16.6 FGA, 3.5 3PA, 46.1% FG, 28.0% 3PT

Branson: 20.8 points, 16.3 FGA, 4.7 3PA, 46.8% 3PT, 34.5% 3PT

Embiid’s playoff history speaks for itself, and not in a good way. Meanwhile, Brunson is gearing up for his second playoff appearance as a true No. 1 with his own team.And last year, he helped his team upset cleveland cavaliers in the first round.

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The 76ers will turn to Embiid, who looked like a shell of an MVP in Wednesday’s play-in, as the Knicks increasingly focus their offense on Brunson against a team that doesn’t have the only answer to stopping him. It will be.

Then there’s the defensive pressure that OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Donte DiVincenzo put on Maxey. New York’s offensive rebounding is led by Hart, Hartenstein, and Robinson. The 76ers don’t have any true scoring options outside of Embiid and Maxey.

Nicolas Batum needed to score 20 points. The 76ers trailed the one-legged Butler, and the Heat couldn’t find their offensive footing for most of the game.

Batum only topped the 10-point mark seven times during the regular season.

Seven.

Embiid is not completely healthy. That’s obvious. yes, He played well at the end of the fourth quarter. In that game, though, New York probably won’t shoot as bad as the Heat did in the play-ins. Especially not during a seven-game series.

Philadelphia probably won’t either, but Butler and Embiid were injured for most of Wednesday’s game. Embiid isn’t at his best in this series, Brunson is.

Are there any other factors that influence this series? Absolutely. 3 point variance. The Knicks lack creativity outside of Brunson. Maxie’s ability to attack Branson when attacking. Embiid’s superiority when he’s at his best.

But at the end of the day, Embiid clearly isn’t healthy, Hartenstein is an elite post defender, Brunson is dominant in the pick-and-roll, and Embiid’s playoff resume is shaky at best.

These are the main reasons why Philadelphia’s season ends with a trip to Madison Square Garden.

So Knicks fans shouldn’t just feel good about this series. They must feel invincible.