If you’re getting anxious about next weekend’s weather based on your phone’s forecast, you might want to take a breath. The high temperatures or chance of rain can really change as the day approaches.
It’s pretty common for weather apps to get things wrong, and senior meteorologist Jim Danner from Nexstar pointed out a couple of reasons for this. First, the accuracy of these apps heavily relies on the data they use. Often, the models that generate the predictions are not straightforward, and quality can really differ between apps. “Everyone wants to create weather apps now,” Danner noted, “and that means you’ll see different numbers everywhere.”
There’s also the inherent uncertainty in forecasting weather beyond a few days. Danner mentioned that predicting beyond seven days is quite a stretch. He has found that the standard Apple Weather app, which he uses, can forecast around 3-5 days ahead, but often misses the mark.
For a more reliable forecast, Danner recommends checking in with the National Weather Service or local TV meteorologists. These professionals typically understand which weather models work best considering local seasonal patterns and topography.
“When forecasters are on duty, they need to first assess the current weather situation,” he explained. They gather satellite imagery, surface data, precipitation reports, and insights from other forecasters to develop a comprehensive forecast.
They then integrate this data with their atmospheric knowledge to anticipate the weather for that day, the next, and beyond.
“Forecasters work with various predictive models that run multiple times daily, choosing the most reliable one based on current conditions and its consistency,” Danner added. Sometimes, they might even find a model that doesn’t seem dependable at all.
“Each morning, I often spend over an hour pulling together forecasts,” Danner recalled from his time as a local meteorologist in Texas. These meteorologists really make it their business to understand their local areas well.
