UBS Raises Gold Price Forecasts for 2026

UBS strategists have revised their predictions for Spot Gold prices in 2026, anticipating a continuation of upward momentum that could lead to new record highs this year. They’ve maintained their 2025 target at $3,500 per ounce, slightly above the current spot rate of about $3,340. For next year, the bank has increased its benchmark target from $3,500 to $3,600 by the end of March, and up to $3,700 by the end of June. They’ve also set a new target of $3,700 for the end of September.

This updated forecast comes after months of fluctuations in the gold market, with a rally in the first half of the year attributed to safe-haven buying amid concerns over tariffs imposed by former President Trump. Investors have been closely watching developments regarding potential U.S. tariffs on gold and prospects for resolution in the ongoing Russian-Ukraine conflict. A long-term resolution might lessen the global appetite for safe-haven assets.

Despite these uncertainties, UBS strategists noted in a memo that they see considerable momentum for gold prices, primarily driven by U.S. conditions over the next year. They believe that persistent inflation, influenced by tariffs and immigration policies, will have ongoing effects. “Gold prices should rise as these factors contribute to lower real yields in the U.S.,” they stated, explaining that as actual yields decrease, the opportunity cost of holding gold diminishes.

They also highlighted investor concerns regarding the U.S. financial situation, particularly in light of the increasing deficit, which could intensify demand for gold. This year may see questions surrounding the Federal Reserve’s independence become more prominent, especially with Chairman Jerome Powell’s next announcements approaching in May.

Additionally, UBS hiked its gold forecasts in April, crediting sustained demand from central banks. A bank strategist remarked that this trend “should remain robust, even if it falls slightly short of last year’s near-record purchases.” In recent years, global central banks have been actively acquiring gold, diversifying their holdings away from assets sensitive to policy changes as a hedge against inflation. Notably, China, India, and Turkey have been significant buyers, helping gold surpass the euro as the world’s second largest reserve asset behind the U.S. dollar.