One of the hottest football futures markets is offering odds on teams competing in the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.
In years past, there was little chance of a team from the Group of Five making it into the four-team field.
In fact, of the 40 CFP participants from 2014 to 2023, only one was from the G5 (Cincinnati, 2021).
But now, at least for 2024 and 2025, the top champion in the Group of Five standings is guaranteed a place in the tournament.
As a relatively new market, both sportsbooks and the public aren't quite sure how to operate, which is why it's valuable to savvy bettors looking to build a futures portfolio.
In the preseason, I projected Appalachian State, Boise State, Memphis and Texas State to make the CFP, with odds ranging from +450 to 16/1.
My hope for the first few weeks of the season was to add some hard-hitting long shots in the 20/1 to 40/1 range. Coming out of week 1, it became clear that one team was wildly mispriced by the market.
UNLV won nine games last season, topping the eight-win mark for the first time since Randall Cunningham donned the red and gray in the mid-'80s.
The Rebels did it with a surprisingly good offense (34.4 points per game, 22nd in the league) led by a relatively unknown redshirt freshman from Hawaii.
Jayden Maiava has developed from a little-known three-star prospect into a highly sought-after passer in the transfer portal.
He was the star of the ball last winter after receiving just one FBS scholarship offer in 2020. After committing to Georgia State, he decided on USC.
Losing its star quarterback appears to have poured cold water on UNLV's 2024 CFP hopes.
But coach Barry Odom and genius offensive coordinator Brennan Marion had a plan.
They signed two dynamic FCS quarterbacks, one each from Campbell and Holy Cross.
Neither signing made much of a national splash, but Hajj Malik Williams (Campbell) and Matt Sulka (Holy Cross) were both good fits for Marion’s go-to offense.
After winning the job during fall camp, Sulka now has a chance to prove he has UNLV's offense in good hands.
Sulka, a former Walter Payton Award finalist, looked in good form on the road against a Power 4 opponent on Saturday.
He caught two touchdown passes and ran for 59 yards in a 27-7 win over Houston.
But the reason I expect UNLV to rise this season is because of their improved defense.
Last season, the defense collapsed at key moments.
In the Mountain West finals, the Rebels allowed 527 yards and 44 points to Boise State on their home turf.
They added a few intriguing transfers in the offseason, with Jalen Catalon being one of the flashy top-tier players to make the journey to Sin City, and his presence was immediately felt in Saturday's game.
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The safety had two interceptions, one of which went for a touchdown.
Tony Grimes, once the top high school player in the state of Virginia, has taken the other safety spot for UNLV.
Overall, the defense dominated Houston and contained Cougars starting quarterback Donovan Smith.
Combining his QBR and PFF grades, he was the worst performing P4 quarterback in Week 1.
The offense continues to confuse the opposition and the defense's early comebacks have exceeded expectations.
Their schedule gives the Rebels three big opportunities over the next six weeks with a trip to No. 22 Kansas and two home games against Syracuse and Boise State.
Now is the time to buy UNLV stock before the CFP takes a nosedive.
choose: UNLV advances to CFP (22/1, Caesars)
