Nicolas Maduro is taking a hard line.
The National Electoral Commission, handing him the victory in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election, was Refusal to publish schedulewhich Most observers It will show that he has been completely defeated.
he triggered a wave of arrestsOpposition candidate Emundo González Urrutia Hidden, Maria Corina Machado too.Maduro, a dynamic leader who galvanized the election campaign, has rejected condemnation from leaders in the Western Hemisphere and beyond. “Iron Fist” To crush the enemy.
Why is he taking such an intransigent stance, ignoring all pressure to acknowledge the democratic process and step down? The simple answer is because he can.
One key factor is oil. In Venezuela, Produce Though it is less than a third of what it was before decades of misrule that began under the rule of Maduro’s charismatic predecessor, President Hugo Chavez, the oil sector still provides enough money to keep the army and security agencies functioning even as the larger economy collapses. Spatter
Moreover, the administration benefits from close ties with Cuba. The island nation bring about an economic crisisThe Soviet Union has provided Venezuela with years of training and support from its highly skilled intelligence services, which it developed during its heyday. Close your eyes About potential threats from within, especially from the military.
His government, though corrupt and socialist in name only, still sees itself as a “revolutionary” force, standing up to US imperialism and its supporters in Venezuela. Russia and ChinaIt has long fostered economic, security and political ties with Russia, and while there may be limits to what Russia can do for Maduro in a pinch, it must take comfort in knowing it still has a powerful friend.
Diplomatic efforts are Brazil, Mexico, ColombiaThe government is trying to convince Maduro to release the tally, a step that would likely expose his wrongdoing and force him to negotiate a transition. It’s unclear exactly what’s going on behind the scenes, but so far there are no signs of progress.
A possible next step would be for the U.S. to fully reinstate sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector that were lifted to allow elections to move the country out of the crisis. But the Biden administration has Unlikely It is unlikely that there is any interest in disrupting international oil markets in the middle of a U.S. presidential election, and those in favor of such measures have no adequate answer to the reaction that sanctions failed to topple the regime when they came into effect.
So what is left for the opposition?
Its strength is that it reflects the will of the Venezuelan people, who yearn for change. But there are already signs that Latin countries trying to deal with the crisis are trying to convince the opposition to accept some kind of symbolic solution, in the name of civil peace. Brazil has already suggested that the solution might lie in holding a second electoral process at some point in the future, a suggestion the opposition has rejected. In reality, the only option left for the opposition is to take to the streets, demanding that the vote be respected.
This includes the National Guard, Venezuela’s paramilitary police, SEBIN, the “Bolivarian intelligence service” equivalent to the regime’s Gestapo, and its “Collectivos” Organized groups of street thugs. Such a strategy involves accepting the possibility of high casualties ( Already some(No matter how peaceful the protests) Venezuelans well remember the shooting of anti-Chavez demonstrators from an overpass in central Caracas in 2002, when 19 people were killed. “Puente Llagno Massacre”
But without well-organised protests, there is a risk that popular discontent will lead to a social explosion, as in the 1989 demonstrations. Caracazo (Blow to Caracas), a week of riots and looting sparked by the implementation of economic austerity measures. As many as 3,000 people were killed. Could have been killed before being suppressed.
Of course, there is no guarantee that sustained peaceful protests will be successful, but if they are large enough and last long enough, security forces may become so worn out that Maduro will have no choice but to send in the military and hope the soldiers comply.
Simon Bolivar is a man whose name has been invoked by Hugo Chavez’s government since he came to power in 1999. said“Cursed is the soldier who turns his weapons against the people.”
How the military will respond to the order remains to be seen, but it is up to Venezuelans to decide whether they are ready to take the fateful step of putting them to the test.
Richard M. Sanders is a senior fellow for the Western Hemisphere at the National Interest Center. He served as a senior diplomat in the U.S. State Department throughout Latin America from 2002 to 2005, including at the U.S. Embassy in Caracas.
