Why Harris avoided the most important question in the debate
The most important moment of this week's presidential debate happened right at the beginning.
ABC News debate moderator David Muir asked perhaps the most predictable question of the night. Are Americans richer than they were four years ago?
It's a classic question any incumbent candidate can expect to be asked, and it's especially important now because polls show many Americans are deeply unhappy with the state of the economy and believe their financial situation is getting worse.
Ronald Reagan In a 1980 debate, the question delivered a devastating blow to incumbent President Jimmy Carter.
“Is your life better than it was four years ago? Is it easier to go to a store and buy something than it was four years ago?” Reagan asked.
Tuesday Night Questions It didn't come from Donald Trump. But from the moderator.
“Vice President Harris, you and President Trump [sic] “We were elected four years ago and my opponent here tonight is asking his supporters, are you better off than you were four years ago? When it comes to the economy, do you think the American people are better off than they were four years ago?” Muir asked.
I won't bother quoting Harris' answer. If you don't mind, Read the transcript at ABC NewsIt begins with her talking about her background (“I grew up a middle-class kid”). President Trump's false claim that his proposed tariffs are equivalent to a national sales taxIt doesn't address the issue at all.
“That is completely unusual. Surely Harris's advisors were prepared for this question from the moderator and from Trump himself. Why couldn't she answer it?”
The problem for Harris is that the situation is worse than it was under Trump.
The most generous answer is that the Harris campaign I would rather avoid questions than answer them. Because an honest answer requires acknowledging that in many ways Americans are worse off than they were before, and that inflation is the main cause of much of voters' economic woes.
Let's start with household income. If there is no inflation, The past few years have been great for our income.Median household income rose to $70,780 in 2020, Biden's first year in office, from $68,700 in 2019 and $68,100 in 2020. The following year it rose to $74,580. Last year it jumped again to $80,610. (Of course, this year's figures aren't yet available.)
But the shadow of inflation changes the picture. In 2022 dollars, real median income was $81,2210 in 2019 and $79,650 in 2020. In 2021, inflation accelerated and it fell to $79,260. The following year it fell to $77,540. The day after the debate, the Commerce Department released data for 2023, showing that real median income had risen to $80,610. This marks the first time under Biden that median income has exceeded the median income in the last year of President Trump's presidency, the year of the pandemic. Under the Trump administration, it is still below pre-pandemic levels.
Real income declines for third consecutive yearOnce during the pandemic under Trump and twice under Biden — a rare occurrence. The last time real incomes fell was in a one-year period in 2014, when they dropped from $68,200 to $67,300. Before that, incomes had fallen from their pre-financial crisis peak in 2007 to their trough in 2011.
In other words, before the pandemic hit in 2020, Average incomes have been rising for five yearsWhen Joe Biden campaigned on a promise to revive the economy after the pandemic and grow it “from the bottom up and out of the middle,” voters surely did not expect real incomes to continue falling for another two years.
Consumer sentiment is worse than it was during the pandemic
of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey This reflects the damage this has done. Four years ago, the Consumer Sentiment Index was at 74.1. The Consumer Expectations sub-index was at 68.5 and the Current Situation Index was at 82.9. The Current Situation Index plummeted 21.3% year-on-year as the pandemic hit.
So what's happening now? The latest consumer confidence index is at 67.9. That's 8.3 percentage points lower than at the worst point of the pandemic.In fact, throughout the entire pandemic year, consumer sentiment has never once dipped below 70. It has now been below that level for four consecutive months.
The Expectations Index is a little higher than it was four years ago, at 72.1, but that's because Republicans are more optimistic today, at 56.3, than Democrats, who were 46.6 in 2020. The current situation is 61.3, A whopping 26 percent decrease.
Of course, some things have improved over the past four years. For example, the unemployment rate in August 2020 was twice what it is today. But many Americans naturally don't use four years ago as a benchmark. The point of the question is not to ask about four years ago, but to compare progress made under presidential administrations. And Unemployment was low just before the pandemic The unemployment rate is lower than the current 3.5%. In fact, during the two years of the Trump administration, the unemployment rate was lower than it is today.
It's no wonder Harris has gone all out to speak about the most important issue in this election.
