The Astros and Cardinals meet on Monday after initially being projected to win their respective divisions, but as of early June, both teams are below .500.
As the summer begins to heat up, there are two teams that will need to evaluate whether they will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.
The pressure also opens the stage for Justin Verlander, who is in the final guaranteed season of his two-year contract with Houston.
Despite having to waive his no-trade clause, the veteran right-hander is hoping to compete at age 41.
It’s true that Verlander isn’t in top form, but considering he’s averaging more than 94 pitches per game, it can still be said that he is playing with above-average consistency.
He remains incredibly hard to hit, ranking in the top 4% of MLB in hard-hit rate, according to Statcast.
Verlander’s strikeout and walk rates have predictably declined each year, but he has had three impressive showings against weak lineups, striking out seven or more batters.
The Cardinals come into town as one of the worst scoring teams in baseball.
They boast the highest meatball rate in the league, yet they don’t jump at the tempting ball.
The Cardinals have also struggled with hard contact, ranking in the bottom seven teams in both hard-hit rate and barrel rate, giving Verlander an added advantage.
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Despite Houston’s bad luck offensively, they still boast a quality lineup with the highest zone contact and second-lowest strikeout rate.
Kyle Gibson is coming off a tenacious start against the Astros, but given their lack of scoring, 5.22 xERA, and vulnerability to hard hits, I see Gibson as the favorite to win.
Play: Astros (-164 FanDuel)
